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COVID-19 UPDATE: Vaccine news causing equity risk premia collapse = P/E upside. Supercomputer rethinks COVID-19 = bradykinin storm (vitamin D = good)

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

FYI, we will be following a shortened publication schedule this week:
– Thursday morning (9/3)

Labor Day holiday –> no reports Friday and Monday

– Tuesday morning (9/8)

Daily COVID-19 cases saw a surprising improvement today with daily cases coming in at 38,377 which is down -5,235 vs 7D ago.  Typically, Wednesday cases see a big surge vs 1D ago (usually up +6k or so) but was flat with yesterday.   

This is a break in pattern vs the last 10 days where daily cases were flat vs 7D ago.  So, I don't want to jump the gun, but this positive surprise to the downside is a nice inflection.  Perhaps the surge associated with back to school is being offset by the organic retreat in cases.

STRATEGY: Vaccine news will cause equity risk premia to fall
Stocks reacted strongly Wednesday to the CDC notifying states to prepare for a vaccine by November 1.  As the Bloomberg story below notes, the CDC is asking states to remove obstacles to prepare for widespread distribution on that date.

- if a bona-fide vaccine is available Nov 1, this is a big big deal
- it is a pathway to see a safer world = economy recovers

Source: Bloomberg

US equities survived a "stress test" not seen in 5 lifetimes = equity ...

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