COVID-19 UPDATE: COVID-19 in organic retreat as cases COLLAPSE again. Southern hemisphere had no flu season, which argues against US second wave

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There has been little media coverage, in my opinion, on the sharp downturn in USA COVID-19 cases.  The reason we see this as a big deal is that this was achieved without shutting down the economy.  Certainly, policymakers needed to course correct, which is good.  The reason we see this as a big deal, is this shows the US can handle surges and outbreaks in COVID-19.  And as we highlighted, the 4 epicenter states, FL, CA, AZ, TX, or F-CAT, are seeing a collapse in cases that mirrors the decline seen in NY tristate. Even Tuesday's COVID-19 case data is promising.  Total cases came in at 40,140 and this is down -15,000 from 7D ago and reflects a sizable backlog from Texas (see below) and probably zero further backlog from CA.Variant scenario -- COVID-19 in organic retreat and no second wave in the Fall (no flu season)... rising oddsSo today, we started to think about a variant scenario for COVID-19 over the next few months.  We think it is possible that COVID-19 could be receding organically and fall towards a sub-5,000 level per day in the US.  And on top of that, there would be no second wave this Fall.  Why no second wave?  We discuss this below, but there has es...

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