Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.
STRATEGY: The daily 'seasonality' is so pronounced, looking vs 7D is the only way to see trends...
Over the past 10 days, many of our clients have questioned whether daily cases trends are falling -- the reason is that day by day, we see fluctuations in daily cases. There are several reasons for this:
- weekend lags due to lab closures
- weekend lags as people seek testing during midweek
- general seasonality
But as we have been saying for >10 days now, we believe daily cases peaked on 7/24 and are now in a steep decline. To really appreciate this, we re-arranged daily cases, but based upon the "day of the week" -- this way, you can see how each day of the week compared to the same period in prior weeks.
- as this chart shows, the daily cases have fallen 4 weeks in a row (same day)
- cases reported to be highest on Thursday/Friday in any given week
Now some prefer to look at 7-day moving average, and we think this is good for smoothing out the lumps, but it is also slower moving. That is, it is not necessarily going to reflect changes quickly. The 7-day moving averages are highlighted in the blue boxes above the daily cases.