Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.
Total USA COVID-19 cases came in at 49,820, which is up from 1D ago (typical midweek) but is down ~9,000 from 7D ago. The 7D ago delta is the key and as we mentioned in prior notes, is a proxy for the R0. If R0 < 1.0 is similar to seeing 7D delta negative.
- the most noticeable trend is the 7D delta decline is accelerating
- 5,000 or so last week
- 10,000 this week
Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project
Daily cases only 2,000 by the end of August?
We made a simple table below. This is forecast, assuming daily cases are 10,000 lower vs 7D ago.
- By the end of August, USA might have 2,000 cases
- 10,000 7D delta assumes no improvement in R0
By the way, this would track what we saw in the NY tristate area. As shown below, it took 25 days for cases to fall 75% and 46 to fall 90%. Cases peaked on July 17th in the US.