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COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases flat vs 7D ago = good. VIX at cycle low = good. Credit card spend follows national case trends, not local

Daily cases in the US peaked on 7/17 at 76,737 and in the intervening 5 days, we have not made a new high.  Yesterday's daily cases was 69,293, basically flat with cases on 7/15/2020, or 7D ago.  So, we are continuing the pattern of flattish cases vs 7D ago.  The key date, therefore, is 7/24, or Friday.  Because we will be "lapping" that 7/17 high.  The chart below shows the daily cases compared to 7D ago.  And as the chart below highlights, the 7D delta has been flat for the last 5 days and is down sharply from the dramatic acceleration seen 3-4 weeks ago.

Source: COVID-19 Tracking ProjectThe 7D delta is somewhat of a simplified proxy for R0.  If the R0 is >1.0, then the 7D delta should be rising.  If this is flat/declining, the R0 is essentially falling.  From the trend perspective, the R0 seems to be slowing.  There has been a ton of course correction in the past few weeks, and with the White House's full explicit endorsement of PPE measures, we should see this R0 to fall further.So we think daily cases are indeed peaking. And while deaths are up, this is a residual effect from the surge in cases seen in the new epicenter, FL, CA, AZ, TX, or F-CAT.  These 4 states saw the surge in cases and now we are seeing the...

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