COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases flat vs 7D ago = good. VIX at cycle low = good. Credit card spend follows national case trends, not local

Daily cases in the US peaked on 7/17 at 76,737 and in the intervening 5 days, we have not made a new high.  Yesterday's daily cases was 69,293, basically flat with cases on 7/15/2020, or 7D ago.  So, we are continuing the pattern of flattish cases vs 7D ago.  The key date, therefore, is 7/24, or Friday.  Because we will be "lapping" that 7/17 high.  The chart below shows the daily cases compared to 7D ago.  And as the chart below highlights, the 7D delta has been flat for the last 5 days and is down sharply from the dramatic acceleration seen 3-4 weeks ago.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
Source: COVID-19 Tracking ProjectThe 7D delta is somewhat of a simplified proxy for R0.  If the R0 is >1.0, then the 7D delta should be rising.  If this is flat/declining, the R0 is essentially falling.  From the trend perspective, the R0 seems to be slowing.  There has been a ton of course correction in the past few weeks, and with the White House's full explicit endorsement of PPE measures, we should see this R0 to fall further.So we think daily cases are indeed peaking. And while deaths are up, this is a residual effect from the surge in cases seen in the new epicenter, FL, CA, AZ, TX, or F-CAT.  These 4 states saw the surge in cases and now we are seeing the...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)