COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases rise over weekend, yet hospitalizations + death in persistent downtrend (both 90% down from peak). Past 4 US pandemics saw vaccines developed 4-9 months, vs 12-18 expected for COVID-19. 32 Epicenter stock ideas.

In the US, today is Father's Day.  The holiday originated in Spokane, WA at the YMCA in 1910 by Sonora Smart Dodd, who herself was born in Arkansas.  Her father was a Civil War veteran and a single parent who raised 6 kids.  So, Happy Father's Day to everyone who is a parent, has a parent (or knows a parent).The improving narrative around COVID-19 has been setback because many states in the US are seeing a rise in cases.  There has been some alarm raised recently given the rise in US COVID-19 cases.  In fact, cases have also risen in Western Europe (Germany, see below).  But cases alone is not the reason to be wary -- it is the risk that cases drive hospitalizations, which drive ICUs/deaths and therefore, further health and economic tragedy.Notably, the states seeing sustained rises in cases are not seeing a proportionate rise in healthcare utilization (hospitalization rate) -- Texas, Florida, Arizona, California, Utah and to a decreasing extent, Arkansas (looks like it has already peaked).  This continues to be the case, even for states like California.And while some see this as an indictment of state openings, the timeline for the case increases is more consistent with the nationwide protests (>3 weeks now), rather than economic re-opening...

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