COVID-19 update. 58% of US sees case growth <10%. NYC case spread inverse to pop density based on zip codes
We realize there are many people interested in updates regarding COVID-19, so please feel free to send along this commentary to anyone who has interest.
To start, we hope everyone had a Happy Easter. The weekend has brought incrementally better news on the COVID-19 front, internationally, NYC/NY-state and nationwide as daily case growth shows widespread deceleration and even daily reported deaths are likely apexing. State and local governments are extending the "stay at home" orders but with diminishing intensity of the crisis, we can start to track how local economies begin to ease restrictions.
- The White House now expects total expected deaths from COVID-19 to be around ~60,000, down from 100,000-200,000 last than 10 days ago and significantly less than original forecasts as high as 2.2 million. The IHME projection curves are plotted below (the IHME sent us the raw data). And tireless Ken (our data scientist) was able to render these revised death forecasts.
- As of the latest Johns-Hopkins update, the US has recorded 22,115 deaths from COVID-19, so total deaths are still expected to triple over the next month.
- The IHME data has been quite accurate on death forecasts, particularly for NY state, but in the US overall, we believe that the widespread social distance measures is causing the realized deaths to undershoot their models. So we believe it is possible that the cumulative death forecasts could fall even further.
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