COVID-19 UPDATE. As NY/NYC plurality of evidence pointing to "apex" already in, investors need to see "half-full" arguments
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It's Sunday night, and unlike the many nights of the past six weeks, there is a diminishing sense of dread about the next day. For whatever reason, there were a couple of positive developments that seem to have happened on Sunday. Among them, NY state posted a notable drop in hospitalizations and deaths, sufficient for Gov. Cuomo to cite what I perceived as a positive tone. And the White House briefing this evening also cited that cautious optimism that healthcare resource utilization is tracking even better than their optimistic case. And in Europe, Italy and Spain are showing sustained improvements in the drop in daily new cases.
Perhaps the UK remains somewhat of a concern as new cases surge there and PM Boris Johnson required hospitalization. The UK was slightly later in mandating strict social distance measures.
But let's look at the improving complexion of the data.
POINT #1: NY State / NYC showing sustained improvements and possible NYC already peaked on cases but deaths should lag...
We wrote an earlier brief today on NY state so we will not repeat ourselves but the high-level observations were. The developments were surprisingly positive that we decided to send a bulletin shortly after his press conference:
- Daily new cases +8,327 (4/4) down from recent two days of 10,841 (4/3) and 10,482 (4/2)
- Daily deaths flat+594 (4/4) vs 630 (4/3) and 562 (4/2)
- Drop in hospitalizations? wow...Total new hospitalized +574 (4/4) vs 1,095 (4/3) and 1,427 (4/2) <-- HUGE decline in past 3 days
- Flat Intubations+316 (4/4) vs 351 (4/3) and 260 (4/2).
- Exponential rise in hospital discharges Daily hospital discharges +1,709 (4/4) vs 1,592 (4/3) and 1,452 (4/2).
New York City cases remain flat at ~4,000 per day since 3/25/2020 (12 days and running)... meaning cases 2X every 12-13 days now. PRETTY CLEAR NYC SHIFTING TO LINEAR from EXPONENTIAL and hopefully soon to DECLINE...
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