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It appears that the U.S. stock market and the Federal Reserve are in agreement that the U.S. economy is bottoming, and the way forward is looking up.

Equities have certainly shot up in anticipation since the March 23 low by over one third, even in the face of heavy doubts by investors and low shouts from the bears. Unlike the pessimists, we, on the other hand, have advocated that the market rally was discounting the effects of the economic shutdown as mostly transitory and looking ahead to potentially better times in 2021. I’ll admit that the market has certainly outstripped my optimism.

Now the Fed is suggesting that the economy could have bottomed. Speaking to Bloomberg TV Wednesday, Fed Bank of New York President John Williams indicated he thought that the worst of the economy’s decline from the coronavirus crisis might be over.

“Based on what we are seeing now, I think we are pretty close, maybe May or June will be the low point right now based on the data we are seeing…[though] even if we are starting to see perhaps stabilization there in terms of the economy and maybe a little pickup, we are still in a very difficult situation.”

His view is that there is room to grow again toward the strengthen seen early in 2020, helped along by central bank policy. ...

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