Fed Watch

At Halloween a Fed Funds Rate Cut This Way Comes

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Vito J. Racanelli

Senior Editor & Market Intelligence Analyst

Next Thursday, Oct. 31, Halloween, investors will likely see a 25 basis points reduction to the Federal funds rate from the Federal Open Market Committee, when it meets that day. It would drop to a range of 1.50%-1.75%. My sense is the market spies a treat, not a trick. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.

With the Fed futures market signaling a 93% probability, it’s almost a done deal. The FOMC pays close attention to the Fed futures markets as the pulse of investor thinking, past meeting minutes have shown. If the committee wanted to show investors it disagreed with that probability it would have made quiet but definitive noises about it by now. I shudder to think what would happen in the unlikely event the FOMC doesn’t cut. That would be a Halloween to remember.

Economic reports, which is what the data-dependent Fed says it looks at, continue to suggest a cut is on the way. Global business activity is still slowing. For example, Sept. U.S. orders for long-lasting goods fell, due partly to transportation equipment, reflecting a General Motors (GM) strike and the grounding of Boeing’s (BA) 737 Max airplane. The eurozone, meanwhile, is close to stagnation in October, while activity declined in Japan, thanks to higher tariffs and slower investment spending.

On Nov. 1,...

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Vito J. Racanelli

Senior Editor & Market Intelligence Analyst

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