RECAP OF THE CALL
We had a great call. More than 300 clients dialed in… so a big turnout.
He says Tuesday is a major turning point for stocks (he made this call on Monday AM). This is especially true of Dow Jones (hit exact downside target) and lesser for S&P 500 (2.097 is downside, so some unfinished business).
Since late Fall, he was looking for a steep market decline in 18136 in Dow and 2,097 in S&P 500. These levels are a 62% retrace of his TD measured moves.
The parallels he sees best fitting today are: 1987, 1929 and 2011.
Overall, the sense is the bulk of the decline is behind us. And while he is not ruling out a scenario, the current picture is more similar to 1987 or 2011. The reason he is not seeing significant downside is the markets have completed a sequential TD combo 13, this is a type of pattern set-up that is akin to seeing the exhaustion of sellers here. In other words, his model is becoming incremental buyers with each downside move.
In 2011, stocks still had some weeks ahead of consolidation, and this is what he is now expecting, and for S&P 500, a possible revisit towards 2,097 at some point would not surprise him. One of the most similar features of 2011 to today is fact stocks saw 22 successive lows on both instances, before bottoming. This is playing out to the day in 2020. This recent low (Monday) is an interim low but not necessarily the final low.
In 2011, he was advising his clients to buy and this ultimately allowed them to make big gains, but there overall index has a overhang possibility of a move to 2,097.
What could change this picture?
If S&P 500 breaks decisively below 2,097 and does not recover, then the prevailing targets of 1,700 are possible.
If the S&P 500 makes a measured move above 2,550, there is diminished likelihood of a retest.
Best base for bulls, stocks open Wednesday above Tuesday highs and build upon those gains. This would suggest that short covering is not driving move, but real buyers.
Bitcoin, he had 5,135 as downside target. We are there. The picture is not that clear now, but he doesn’t see much downside and most likely path is sideways
