A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell
“Each second we live is a new and unique moment of the universe a moment that never was before and never will be again” ― Pablo Casals
Overnight
Largest port on U.S. East Coast, New York/New Jersey, begins prepping for what could be first union strike since 1977 CNBC
Mortgage rates drop to lowest since early February 2023 after Fed’s jumbo interest rate cut CNN
In break with tradition, powerful Teamsters union won’t endorse Harris or Trump SEM
E.U. plans to offer $39 billion loan to Ukraine without the U.S. NYT
DOJ sees tips flow in over first month of pilot whistleblower program WSJ
Seeking to counter China, US awards $3 billion for EV battery production in 14 states AP
UAW warns of potential strikes at Ford, Stellantis a year after unprecedented work stoppages CNBC
Danske Bank to pay $7 Million in French settlement over Estonia money-laundering WSJ
TD Bank CEO Bharat Masrani to Retire, Be Succeeded by Raymond Chun WSJ
FedEx shares tumble amid weak demand for pricey priority deliveries RT
Nike CEO John Donahoe is out, replaced by company veteran Elliott Hill CNBC
VW audit of Xinjiang plant failed to meet international standards FT
Masimo CEO Joe Kiani ousted from board after proxy fight; Politan wins two seats CNBC
Target Names PepsiCo’s Jim Lee as Finance Chief WSJ
Politico owner Axel Springer strikes breakup deal with KKR NYT
Publicis Buys Mars United Commerce in Deal Valuing Agency at $600 Million WSJ
Olive Garden breadsticks hitch a ride with Uber in delivery deal WSJ
Hong Kong man jailed for ‘seditious’ T-shirt BBC
US overdose deaths fell 10% after decades of rising SEM
Chart of the Day
Overnight |
S&P Futures -14
point(s) (-0.2%
) Overnight range: -14 to -0 point(s) |
APAC |
Nikkei +1.53%
Topix +0.97% China SHCOMP +0.03% Hang Seng +1.36% Korea +0.49% Singapore -0.23% Australia +0.21% India +1.41% Taiwan +0.53% |
Europe |
Stoxx 50 -0.95%
Stoxx 600 -0.72% FTSE 100 -0.74% DAX -0.95% CAC 40 -0.89% Italy -0.69% IBEX -0.18% |
FX |
Dollar Index (DXY) +0.14%
to 100.75 EUR/USD flat at 1.1162 GBP/USD +0.08% to 1.3294 USD/JPY +0.85% to 143.84 USD/CNY -0.13% to 7.0535 USD/CNH -0.25% to 7.0538 USD/CHF +0.07% to 0.8484 USD/CAD +0.09% to 1.3571 AUD/USD -0.09% to 0.6808 |
Crypto |
BTC +0.75%
to 63515.01 ETH +3.27% to 2546.36 XRP -0.68% to 0.5882 Cardano +1.87% to 0.3595 Solana +6.07% to 151.56 Avalanche +6.48% to 28.41 Dogecoin +1.04% to 0.1071 Chainlink +4.51% to 11.71 |
Commodities and Others |
VIX +0.43%
to 16.4 WTI Crude -0.14% to 71.85 Brent Crude -0.08% to 74.82 Nat Gas -0.38% to 2.34 RBOB Gas -0.28% to 2.054 Heating Oil -0.19% to 2.168 Gold +0.73% to 2605.61 Silver +1.12% to 31.13 Copper +0.73% to 4.317 |
US Treasuries |
1M +9.9bps
to 4.7374% 3M -2.3bps to 4.6904% 6M -1.5bps to 4.4571% 12M -0.1bps to 3.9403% 2Y +0.3bps to 3.5847% 5Y +0.2bps to 3.484% 7Y -0.0bps to 3.5907% 10Y -0.0bps to 3.713% 20Y -0.7bps to 4.0924% 30Y -1.2bps to 4.0381% |
UST Term Structure |
2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 0.3bps to -114.7
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread narrowed 0.1bps to 12.6 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread narrowed 1.0bps to 32.3 bps |
Yesterday's Recap |
SPX +1.7%
SPX Eq Wt +1.07% NASDAQ 100 +2.56% NASDAQ Comp +2.51% Russell Midcap +1.33% R2k +2.1% R1k Value +1.01% R1k Growth +2.37% R2k Value +1.93% R2k Growth +2.27% FANG+ +3.37% Semis +4.34% Software +2.67% Biotech +1.61% Regional Banks +2.83% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Tech +3.08% Cons Disc +2.2% Comm Srvcs +1.88% Indu +1.75% SPX +1.7% Materials +1.49% Energy +1.22% Fin +1.17% Healthcare +0.35% REITs -0.23% Utes -0.57% Cons Staples -0.58% |
USD HY OaS |
All Sectors -6.9bp
to 359bp All Sectors ex-Energy -5.8bp to 333bp Cons Disc -9.9bp to 316bp Indu -7.9bp to 259bp Tech -2.6bp to 347bp Comm Srvcs -5.6bp to 583bp Materials -7.4bp to 346bp Energy -4.3bp to 320bp Fin Snr -5.6bp to 319bp Fin Sub -4.1bp to 235bp Cons Staples +2.5bp to 320bp Healthcare -12.9bp to 379bp Utes -5.0bp to 227bp * |
Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
---|---|---|---|---|
9/23 | 9:45AM | Sep P S&P Manu PMI | 48.6 | 47.9 |
9/23 | 9:45AM | Sep P S&P Srvcs PMI | 55.2 | 55.7 |
9/24 | 10AM | Sep Conf Board Sentiment | 102.85 | 103.3 |
9/25 | 10AM | Aug New Home Sales | 690.0 | 739.0 |
9/25 | 10AM | Aug New Home Sales m/m | -6.6 | 10.6 |
9/26 | 8:30AM | 2Q T GDP QoQ | 2.9 | 3.0 |
9/26 | 8:30AM | Aug P Durable Gds Orders | -2.8 | 9.8 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
Markets reacted positively the day after the Fed initiated a rate cutting cycle. Most notably, small-caps are leading gains, even as markets have seen a broad-based rally.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- Short-term bullish trend looks to be “back on track” after pushing to record highs.
- Biotech offers appeal after rate cuts and XBI is on the verge of breaking out.
- Defensive sectors all retreated in lockstep Thursday, as SPX breakout caused exodus.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
The Fed has done exactly what risk assets were looking for — implementing a dovish 50-bps cut and providing guidance for two more by year-end, all while maintaining reassuring economic commentary (though some bears misinterpreted this as hawkish). As we approach year-end, we remain optimistic about the crypto outlook, seeing the market’s lean toward a soft landing as constructive for prices. With the hard landing risk fading after the Fed’s dovish but reassuring stance, we believe now is the right time for crypto investors to deploy dry powder.
Click HERE for more.
First News
Zoonotic again. A peer-reviewed study newly published in the Cell scientific journal adds support to a theoretical link between the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China and the coronavirus behind the COVID-19 pandemic. “This doesn’t prove by any means that there were infected animals at the market, but we believe that to be by far the most likely hypothesis,” Kristian Andersen, director of infectious disease genomics at the Scripps Research Institute and one of the authors of the new study, told NPR, citing data provided by the Chinese government.
Studying the likely zoonotic – animal-to-human – origins of COVID-19 are important, as many infectious disease experts believe there is an increasing likelihood that the next global pandemic will also be zoonotic in origin. That is unsurprising: scientists currently believe that three out of every four new or emerging infectious diseases in people come from animals.
Public health officials are currently monitoring two zoonotic diseases closely. The World Health Organization last month elevated monkeypox, also known as mpox, to the status of global health emergency. The first known case of a human infected with monkeypox emerged in 1970, but last month cases began to spread rapidly – first in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, then to other countries in west and central Africa. Also last month, Swedish authorities reported the first confirmed case of the more dangerous “clade 1 variant” of mpox outside Africa.
Meanwhile, human cases of bird flu have begun to emerge. Although just 14 cases of avian influenza A, or bird flu, have been confirmed in the U.S., last week, Missouri health officials confirmed the first case in which the patient had no occupational contact with animals. In the Missouri case, the virus was found to have two genetic mutations not found in previous cases of human infection, though it is unclear whether those mutations explain how this latest patient was infected. He was briefly hospitalized but has recovered and been released.
Where the air is rarified. Frequent flyer programs are highly valuable to airlines. Delta SkyMiles, for example, is valued at $25 billion – compared to Delta’s current market cap of $30.5 billion. U.S. regulators have begun looking into whether such programs became this valuable at the unfair expense of customers.
One key concern is whether the often vague and unclear use of dynamic pricing to determine how miles are redeemed (or if they even can be redeemed) crosses the line into unfair or deceptive behavior. Another focuses on the devaluation of acquired miles over time. The Department of Transportation, which has responsibility for overseeing airlines’ consumer practices, is also concerned that recent consolidation in the airline industry has left many consumers with not just fewer choices as to what airlines they fly, but also, for all practical purposes, fewer choices as to miles programs in which they can participate. The airlines being targeted by the DOT’s inquiry are American, Delta, Southwest, and United Airlines. (FT, RT)