First Word

FLASH INTRADAY: GME surge --> VIX surge --> de-grossing --> stocks go down

STRATEGY: GME surge --> VIX surge --> de-grossing --> stocks go down
Equities are under intensifying pressure today, and investors are citing multiple factors including rising rates (10Y creeping up).  But in a way, we think today is actually a "de-grossing event"

- GME shares surged late Wednesday (+100%) and are again surging +80% today
- VIX has followed the price of GME shares very closely since mid-Jan (when GME went mental)

Why?
- GME might still a popular short among HF
- surging GME, means VAR requires short-covering
- going long VIX is not a bad proxy
- rising VIX causes value-at-risk models to require hedge funds to de-gross, or reduce leverage

Hence, GME surge --> VIX surge --> de-grossing --> stocks go down

Of course, this is merely an observation and may not be the actual mechanism.  But at a time when:

- crowded longs like Technology, Stay-at-home, etc have been acting poorly. 
- crowded underweights/shorts like Energy/Epicenter are surging

It is also not surprising to see GME create another wave of panic/ post-traumatic de-gross.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
Source: Fundstrat and BloombergSTRATEGY: Well, VIX surges are temporary equity headwinds, since economic momentum is strengthening...The surge in the VIX is not welcome and rising VIX is a headwind for stocks.  But do we s...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)