I would like to start this note by offering my thoughts and prayers to all those impacted by the current severe weather. Overall, trends in the US regarding COVID-19 are positive particularly regarding daily cases which are down 33,466 from a week ago. However, with the vast interruptions in testing due to weather there might be some under-reporting occurring.

Another complication is that it seems about 7% of total US cases are new variants. Given that some are more virulent and contagious, and that vaccines are less effective against the variants, it is a possibility that this could reverse positive progress on cases. Right now though, one of the most encouraging signs we’ve seen for a while just occurred. As Nate Silver pointed out, the daily positivity rate in the US has been below 5% for two consecutive days.

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This is a big deal because it has not occurred since mid-October. If the trend continues, we could get below the 5% level before very long, which we view as a significant level. The lower positivity rate is likely not caused by temporary interruptions in testing. As we pointed out on Tuesday, it is also possible the drop in testing is accompanied by a drop in the R0 as social interaction is diminished by road cl...

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