A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell

“The key to abundance is meeting limited circumstances with unlimited thoughts.” — Marianne Williamson

Overnight

S&P 500 erases August drop as recession fears ease MW

Strong U.S. retail sales raise hopes of ‘soft landing’ FT

Never-ending story: Edgar Bronfman prepares bid for Paramount and its parent National Amusements WSJ

Walmart earnings and July retail sales show consumers aren’t quitting WSJ

Deere shrinks staff to navigate farm economy downturn WSJ

Pockets of deflation found in men’s suits, airline fares, et al CNBC

Google says it has found Iranian hackers hitting top U.S. presidential election targets TR

Google has unleashed its legal fury on hackers and scammers Wired

Google’s antitrust defeat could shape AI markets FT

Harris to call for expanded Child Tax Credit, 3 million new housing units WSJ

Digital nomad: Starbucks’ CEO given $113mn pay deal, remote office in Newport Beach

Goldman Sachs jumps into bitcoin ETFs while rivals retreat, and one hedge fund gets bullish on miners CNBC

SoftBank scraps AI chips tie-up plan with Intel RT

Top spin: ex-Credit Suisse risk chief Lara Warner (of Greensill and Archegos Capital fame) joins regulatory adviser Starling Trust FT

Private-equity firms desperate for cash turn to a familiar trick WSJ

Oslo struggles to solve ‘mystery’ of Norwegian krone’s decline FT

Inside the $93 million Wall Street heist that stemmed from Russia CNBC

How Venezuela’s Maduro is clinging on to power FT

BDO sinks to bottom of U.S. audit-quality league table FT

Klarna takes on JPMorgan, BofA with foray into bank accounts BBG

Soros, Druckenmiller pared mega-cap holdings ahead of rout BBG

English ChatGPT users flummoxed by language glitch as bot turns Welsh FT

France commemorates 80-year anniversary of Allied landings in Provence, stressing contribution of soldiers from its African colonies France24

In charts: Elon Musk’s megaphone reach on X FT

English council claims Dubai-based businessman misused £150mn FT

A matter of when, not if: 2.9 billion people may have had SSNs, financial data compromised CNBC

Crypto hacks double to $1.6 billion as prices jump BBG

Scandals plunge Milei’s Peronist rivals into crisis FT

How booming electricity demand is stalling efforts to retire coal and gas WSJ

Solar geoengineering might help cool a warming Earth, but research into risks is lacking Semafor

Global access to safe drinking water may be significantly overestimated Semafor

Shocking! Las Vegas Strip casino accused of hosting criminals WSJ

The feds are ‘playing nice’ with Big Pharma, at least for now WSJ

How Roche passed on a potential $14bn-a-year weight-loss pill FT

Vaccine bottlenecks threaten to hamper response to Mpox emergency; Sweden, Pakistan report cases FT

Peter Marshall, longtime host of ‘The Hollywood Squares’, dies at 98 NYT

Chart of the Day

MARKET LEVELS

MORNING INSIGHT

Good morning!

Over the next few weeks, there will be some important (and favorable) macro reports:
– 8/22-8/24: Fed Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Powell speaks
– 8/30: July PCE (Fed’s preferred measure of inflation)
– 9/6: Aug Jobs report.

Click HERE for more.

TECHNICAL

As Mark Newton is on break, there will be no new reports or videos this week.

Click HERE for more.

CRYPTO

In our latest video, we break down the market’s shift back to pricing in a soft landing, outline and Fed landing scenarios and how crypto might perform in each, and highlight key seasonal headwinds investors need to watch.

Click HERE for more.

First News

Equal Minds Amended. The age gap between American spouses has been narrowing over time, and by 2022 the average difference was 2.2 years, with husbands typically being older. This is a decrease from 2.4 years in 2000 and a significant reduction from 4.9 years in 1880. 2022 also marked the first time that 51% of straight married couples were roughly the same age. (The remaining couples were divided between those with husbands at least three years older (40%) and those with wives at least three years older (10%)).

Girls are known to have the ability of developing faster than boys, which is why the difference of a few years has traditionally been taken to mean that a somewhat older husband and a slightly younger wife – especially if married in their early 20s, before brain development is complete – would result in a more or less evenly balanced marriage. The fact that a majority of couples feature wives who are, technically, developmentally more advanced, could herald the coming of a vaunted new epoch of maturity and non-violence. This could be a tentative first sign of the long-awaited arrival of the age of matriarchy – the better to counter the tens-of-millennia-old age of patriarchy that has dominated Homo Sapiens culture and is said to have caused countless conflicts and much-told suffering. The baton is finally passing to the wiser sex, and we can’t wait to start reaping the benefits of this new age of reason. Pew Research Center

Fragrant with Success. One thing women are indubitably better at than men – and always have been – is quality skincare, and it just so happens that the body-care industry has experienced significant growth in the past year. The emerging sector, which extends beyond facial skincare to include specialized products for various body parts, saw a 21% increase in sales, reaching $1.5 billion. Particularly noteworthy was the surge in fragrant body mist sales, which skyrocketed by 149%. Body oils also saw a considerable uptick, with sales increasing by 25%.

Sol de Janeiro, a brand specializing in moisturizers, bronzing oils, and skin-firming gels, exemplifies the trend. In the year ending March 2024, the company’s sales soared by 158%. Its products now occupy half of the top 10 bestselling slots at Sephora, underscoring the growing consumer interest in comprehensive body care routines. The Wall Street Journal

Zooming out to shopping in general, U.S. retail sales outperformed expectations, putting to rest widely voiced concerns about a possible recession – and pushing stocks higher. After slowing down the previous month, sales rose by an unexpectedly robust 1% in July, representing the largest increase in more than two years. Cars saw a particularly big bump. One analyst asked Bloomberg to explain precisely what ‘hard landing’ was being bandied about in the news. As its CFO denied seeing any incremental fraying of consumer health, Walmart posted strong sales for its second quarter and boosted its profit forecast for the year. All this while jobless claims have dropped to their lowest level since the beginning of July.

If Only There Were Longshorewomen. If sales are to continue rising, shipments need to make it into ports. That’s what retailers and importers are frantically trying to do, hoping to unload ahead of September 30, when a union contract covering 45,000 dockworkers on the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico is due to expire. The International Longshoremen’s Association threatens to strike if contract negotiations fail, potentially causing significant disruptions to the shipping industry. Even a brief stoppage could have far-reaching consequences. A single day of strike action might require 4-6 days to clear the resulting backlog, while a two-week strike could delay port operations from returning to normal until at least 2025.

The looming threat has intensified efforts to expedite container movement from ships to trucks. The urgency is reflected in the skyrocketing costs of off-contract spot market rates. In July, shipping a 40-foot container from Asia to the East Coast reached $10,000, a stark increase from April’s $2,100 rate. Time is running short. Should a strike occur, containers departing China in the coming week may face extended periods stranded aboard vessels. Reuters

Free Money to Reduce Inflation. Finally, as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) reaches its two-year milestone, an unexpected group is emerging as a significant barrier to Donald Trump and JD Vance’s plans to dismantle it: Republican mayors. The Act’s designers ensured its longevity by making its benefits accessible to a wide range of beneficiaries, most notably leaders of Republican-majority states.

A less recognized but increasingly important group of supporters are tax-exempt entities, including municipal authorities, which now have access to renewable energy and electric vehicle tax credits – essentially free funding for such initiatives.

The situation is creating a growing rift between the Trump campaign, which portrays the IRA as primarily benefiting China, and an influential group of local leaders in key swing states. Mark Messer, Lebanon, Ohio’s Republican mayor, says, “What I want to tell Vance and Trump is that this is very beneficial for us”. Semafor