Worst Likely Over, but Potential Choppiness Ahead Array ( [cookie] => cc7da3-396ed3-9470e8-d09e9a-23947d [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 571364 [reason] => [method] => ) 1

“The battles that count aren't the ones for gold medals. The struggles within yourself – the invisible, inevitable battles inside all of us – that's where it's at.” ~Jesse Owens, Olympic gold medalist (1936)

Good evening,

After the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, July 31, we had expected markets to rally. Instead, they got bludgeoned over the next three trading days. It was an inauspicious start to August, already associated with historical/seasonal challenges (in non-bear markets since 1950, markets have ended August higher than they began the month only 39% of the time). 

As followers of our work will recall, the selloff was largely triggered by a soft jobs report released on August 2 that sparked fears of a recession. Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee had immediately expressed skepticism about what the report implied. Despite assertions to the contrary by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, he questioned whether the impact of Hurricane Beryl on Texas and its job market had caused – in his words – a “fluke” in the labor statistics.