Takeaways from Dan Ives fireside chat = Technology lots of visibility. 2024 still likely double-digit gains and "hot" Dec CPI on Thursday likely priced in Array ( [cookie] => ba1401-420bed-223b2e-284d0b-255785 [current_usage] => 1 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 123057 [user_id] => [reason] => Usage under limits [method] => ) 1 and can accesss 1

VIDEO: several things.  Takeaways from our fireside chat. We also talk about signal from 1st 5 days and the upcoming Dec CPI print (Duration: 6:49).

We are only 6 trading days into 2024, and it has been a rough start. Even yesterday, on the potential approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF approval, there appears to be a hack of the SEC and a false tweet was posted. The last few years have shown that the full year tends to play out in January (look at 2021, 2022 and 2023).

• So far, what this tells us is 2024 is shaping up to be a challenging year for investors, but we still expect markets to overall gain double-digits with S&P 500 reaching 5,200 by YE. But most of those gains come in the second half.
• Yesterday, we hosted a fireside chat with Dan Ives, technology analyst at Wedbush. I am a fan of Dan because he spends a lot of time with “boots on the ground” meeting with companies and he also gives the larger story arc to technology, which to me matters more than EPS “beats.” The high level takeaways are:
• Visibility strong for Technology in 2024:
  – AI goes mainstream
  – Cybersecurity budgets sharply rise
  – Enterprise software spending strong
• He also sees substantial EPS upside as he believes there is as much as +20% upside to topline in 2025. Moreover, he sees valuation expansion on higher growth and M&A likely accelerates in AI and cybersecurity, given so many technology companies missed this first wave.
• His favorite stocks:
  Top large-cap stocks: MSFT AAPL TSLA MDB PLTR
  Top cybersecurity: PANW ZS CRWD
  Top SMID cybersecurity: TLS TENB RPD QLYS
  Cybersecurity ETF: HACK
• Regarding the “first 5 days,” we watch it closely because the year tends to play out in January.
  – close on 1/8 is key
  – positive close first 5 days.
  – S&P 500 2023 closing price: 4,770
  – S&P 500 1/8 closing price: 4,764 or down -0.1%
  – is this Signal or a Mulligan?
• We looked at the 20 instances of being “nearly flat” around the first 5 days and our takeaway is this is a mulligan. Clearly there are countervailing forces at work pushing stocks to be flat the first day.
  – of the 20 instances around a “flat” (+ or – 1%) first 5 days,
  – only 2 really saw a large down year
  – 1957 and 1974, where S&P 500 was down -14.3% and -29.7% after a slightly down 1st 5
  – both were recession years
• The takeaway? If we do not have a recession, then stocks likely produce double-digit gains, mostly in 2H24. We do not expect a recession.
• Finally, Dec CPI is released on 1/11 at 8:30am ET. Markets have made sizable moves around CPI day. In the days leading up to CPI, interest rates have moved up sharply:
  – bonds are anticipating a “hot” core CPI
  – consensus is looking for Dec Core CPI MoM of +0.3%
  – so “hot” is +0.40% or higher
• We think stocks have discounted a hot CPI. Thus, we expect markets to rally post-print. After all, the glidepath for inflation is lower since housing and cars are the driver and I don’t expect cars or housing to sustainably accelerate

Bottom line: A rough start to 2024, and tells us to expect a rough 2024 but double-digit gains

The start of the year is telling us to expect a challenging year but we still expect up. And as noted in our earlier notes, we got within 1% of all-time highs and the longest to a subsequent high is 21 days. So new highs in January are expected. There is never an instance of getting within 1% of all-time highs and no new highs.

• we favor small-caps IWM and even still view this despite a rocky start
• our favorite large-cap sector is Financials XLF KRE
• we also like Industrials on bottoming PMIs XLI
• we like Technology/FAANG XLK QQQ and see above for some point

Key incoming data January:

• 1/02 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI December Final Mixed
• 1/03 10am ET December ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 1/03 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings November Tame
• 1/03 2pm ET December FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
• 1/04 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI December Final Tame
• 1/05 8:30am ET December Jobs Report Mixed
• 1/05 10am ET December ISM Services Tame
• 1/08 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Final Tame
• 1/11 8:30am ET December CPI
• 1/12 8:30am ET December PPI
• 1/16 8:30am ET January Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 1/17 8:30am ET January New York Fed Business Activity Survey
• 1/17 8:30am ET December Retail Sales Data
• 1/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Mid-Month
• 1/17 10am EST January NAHB Housing Market Index
• 1/19 8:30am ET January Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey
• 1/19 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Prelim
• 1/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI January Prelim
• 1/25 8:30am ET 4QA 2023 GDP
• 1/26 8:30am ET December PCE
• 1/29 9:30am ET Dallas Fed January Manufacturing Activity Survey
• 1/30 9am ET January S&P CoreLogic CS home price
• 1/30 10am ET January Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 1/30 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings December
• 1/31 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision

Key incoming data December

• 12/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI November Final Tame 
• 12/01 10am ET November ISM Manufacturing Strong 
• 12/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI November Final Strong 
• 12/05 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings October Tame 
• 12/05 10am ET November ISM Services Strong 
• 12/06 8:30am ET 3QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Strong 
• 12/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Final Tame 
• 12/08 8:30am ET November Jobs Report Tame 
• 12/08 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Prelim Tame 
• 12/12 8:30am ET November CPI Tame 
• 12/13 8:30am ET November PPI Tame
• 12/13 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
• 12/14 8:30am ET November Retail Sales Data Tame
• 12/15 8:30am ET December Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 12/15 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI December Prelim Tame
• 12/18 8:30am ET December New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 12/18 10am ET December NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 12/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Mid-Month Tame
• 12/20 10am ET December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 12/21 8:30am ET 3QT 2023 GDP Mixed
• 12/21 8:30am ET December Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
• 12/22 8:30am ET November PCE Tame
• 12/22 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Final Tame
• 12/26 9am ET December S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 12/26 10:30am ET Dallas Fed December Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 12/29 9:45am ET December Chicago PMI

Key incoming data November

• 11/01 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Final Tame 
• 11/01 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings September Mixed
• 11/01 10am ET October ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 11/01 10am ET Treasury 4Q23 Quarterly Refunding Press Conference Tame
• 11/01 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
• 11/02 8:30am ET: 3Q23 Nonfarm Productivity Tame
• 11/03 8:30am ET October Jobs Report Tame
• 11/03 10am ET October ISM Services Mixed
• 11/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index October Final Tame
• 11/10 10am ET U. Mich. November prelim Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
• 11/14 8:30am ET October CPI Tame
• 11/15 8:30am ET October PPI Tame
• 11/15 8:30am ET November Empire Manufacturing Survey  Resilient
• 11/15 8:30am ET October Retail Sales Data Resilient
• 11/16 8:30am ET November New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 11/16 8:30am ET November Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
• 11/16 10am ET November NAHB Housing Market Index  Tame
• 11/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Mid-Month Tame
• 11/21 2pm ET Nov FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
• 11/22 10am ET: U. Mich. November final Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
• 11/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI November Prelim Mixed
• 11/27 10:30am ET Dallas Fed November Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 11/28 9am ET November S&P CoreLogic CS home price  Tame
• 11/28 10am ET November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 11/29 8:30am ET 3QS 2023 GDP Strong
• 11/29 2pm ET Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
• 11/30 8:30am ET October PCE Tame

Key incoming data October

•  10/2 10am ET September ISM Manufacturing Tame
•  10/3 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings August Hot
•  10/4 10am ET September ISM Services Tame
•  10/6 8:30am ET September Jobs Report Mixed
•  10/6 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index September Final Tame
• 10/10 11am NY Fed Inflation Expectations Mixed
•  10/11 8:30am ET September PPI Mixed
•  10/11 2pm ET Sep FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
•  10/12 8:30am ET September CPI Mixed
•  10/13 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
•  10/16 8:30am ET October Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
•  10/17 8:30am ET October New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 10/17 8:30am ET September Retail Sales Data Hot
•  10/17 9am ET Manheim October Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
•  10/17 10am ET October NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 10/18 8:30am ET September Housing Starts Tame
• 10/18 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
•  10/19 8:30am ET October Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
• 10/19 10am ET Existing Home Sales Tame
• 10/19 12pm ET Fed (including Powell) at Economic Club of New York
•  10/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Prelim Tame
•  10/26 8:30am ET 3Q 2023 GDP Advance Strong
•  10/27 8:30am ET September PCE Tame
•  10/27 10am ET Oct F UMich Sentiment and Inflation expectation Tame
•  10/30 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 10/31 8:30am ET 3Q23 Employment Cost Index Mixed
•  10/31 9am ET August S&P CoreLogic CS home price Mixed
•  10/31 10am ET October Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame

Key incoming data September

•  9/1 8:30am ET August Jobs Report Tame
•  9/1 10am ET August ISM Manufacturing Tame
•  9/6 10am ET August ISM Services Mixed
•  9/6 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
•  9/8 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index August Final Tame
•  9/8 2Q23 Fed Flow of Funds Report Tame
•   9/13 8:30am ET August CPI Mixed
•  9/14 8:30am ET August PPI Tame
•  9/15 8:30am ET September Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
•  9/15 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
•  9/18 8:30am ET September New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
•  9/18 10am ET September NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
•  9/19 9am ET Manheim September Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Mixed
•  9/20 2pm ET September FOMC rates decision Market saw Hawkish
•  9/21 8:30am ET September Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
•  9/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI September Prelim
•  9/25 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey
•  9/26 9am ET July S&P CoreLogic CS home price
•  9/26 10am ET September Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Key incoming data August

• 8/1 10am ET July ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 8/1 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings Jun Tame
• 8/2 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
• 8/3 10am ET July ISM Services Tame
• 8/4 8:30am ET July Jobs report Tame
• 8/7 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index July Final Tame
• 8/10 8:30am ET July CPI Tame
• 8/11 8:30am ET July PPI Tame
• 8/11 10am ET U. Mich. July prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 8/11 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker July Tame
• 8/15 8:30am ET Aug Empire Manufacturing SurveyMixed 
• 8/15 10am ET Aug NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
• 8/16 8:30am ET Aug New York Fed Business Activity SurveyNeutral
• 8/16 2pm ET FOMC MinutesMixed 
• 8/17 8:30am ET Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Positive
• 8/17 Manheim Aug Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value IndexTame
• 8/23 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI Aug PrelimWeak
• 8/25 10am ET Aug Final U Mich 1-yr inflationMixed
• 8/28 10:30am ET Dallas Fed Aug Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 8/29 9am ET June S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 8/29 10am ET Aug Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 8/29 10 am ET Jul JOLTS Tame
• 8/31 8:30am ET July PCE Tame

Key incoming data July

• 7/3 10am ET June ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 7/6 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
• 7/6 10am ET June ISM Services Tame
• 7/6 10 am ET May JOLTS Tame
• 7/7 8:30am ET June Jobs report Mixed
• 7/10 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index June Final Tame
• 7/12 8:30am ET June CPI Tame
• 7/13 8:30am ET June PPI Tame
• 7/13 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker June Tame
• 7/14 10am ET U. Mich. June prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
• 7/17 8:30am July Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 7/18 8:30am July New York Fed Business Activity Survey
• 7/18 10am July NAHB Housing Market Index in-line
• 7/18 Manheim July Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
• 7/25 9am ET May S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 7/25 10am ET July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 7/26 2pm ET July FOMC rates decision Tame
• 7/28 8:30am ET June PCE Tame
• 7/28 8:30am ET 2Q ECI Employment Cost Index Tame
• 7/28 10am ET July Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from June

• 6/1 10am ET May ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 6/2 8:30am ET May Jobs report Tame
• 6/5 10am ET May ISM Services Tame
• 6/7 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index May Tame
• 6/9 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
• 6/13 8:30am ET May CPI Tame
• 6/14 8:30am ET May PPI Tame
• 6/14 2pm ET April FOMC rates decision Tame
• 6/16 10am ET U. Mich. May prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 6/27 9am ET April S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 6/27 10am ET June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 6/30 8:30am ET May PCE Tame
• 6/30 10am ET June Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from May

• 5/1 10am ET April ISM Manufacturing (PMIs turn up) Positive inflection
• 5/2 10am ET Mar JOLTS Softer than consensus
• 5/3 10am ET April ISM Services Tame
• 5/3 2pm Fed May FOMC rates decision Dovish
• 5/5 8:30am ET April Jobs report Tame
• 5/5 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index April Tame
• 5/8 2pm ET April 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Better than feared
• 5/10 8:30am ET April CPI Tame
• 5/11 8:30am ET April PPI Tame
• 5/12 10am ET U. Mich. April prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 5/12 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
• 5/24 2pm ET May FOMC minutes Dovish
• 5/26 8:30am ET PCE April Tame
• 5/26 10am ET U. Mich. April final 1-yr inflation Tame
• 5/31 10am ET JOLTS April job openings

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