Upticks - November 2023

Upticks

(New Additions in Bold)

Laggards

(New Additions in Bold)

Meaningful Movement Worth Discussing Among Current UPTICKS Holdings

First Solar (FSLR -0.80% ) 

First Solar (FSLR -0.80% )  Oversold stabilization likely following deep correction.  Pullback nearing Support following more than a 40% decline over the last six months.   Despite the severe weakness in the entire solar energy space this year, FSLR has been arguably stronger than many of its peers in recent months.  Its selloff is now close to a 61.8% Fibonacci area of support as well as nearing prior peaks from November 2021 which likely causes some support to this decline.  Overall, FSLR likely depends on more concrete evidence of Yields rolling over before this can meaningfully begin to turn back higher.  At present, its bounce looks temporary and might consolidate again if rates start to turn back down.  While many of the Solar Energy have gotten quite oversold, it’s hard to say with conviction that this has definitively bottomed.  However, the risk/reward certainly looks much better after recent weakness coupled with a good likelihood that the FOMC is finished hiking rates.   Overall a big bounce looks likely in 2024, but for December this might take a bit more time. 

Newmont Corporation ($NEM)

Newmont Corporation ($NEM)Rally into year-end likely for Gold Miners like NEM given a probable push to new all-time highs for Gold.   Many of the Gold Miners have been under substantial pressure given the decline in the Metals from Summer 2023 as rates were pushing higher.  At present with geopolitical worries rising and the US Dollar and real rates having begun to turn lower, it’s more likely NEM can begin to work.   Key levels lie near $39 which aligns with the downtrend which has lasted for most of 2023.  Moving up above this level allow for NEM to begin the slow trek back to the $50’s to test last year’s peaks.

My cycle composite for Gold is positive between now and Year-end, so this bodes well for Gold and gold stocks to thrive.  While NEM and most of the Gold Miners have been slow to react this far, it looks like an appealing risk/reward at current levels.  NEM  is technically appealing at current levels over the next 3-5 months and hopefully longer.  Seeing DXY and TNX both begin lengthier downtrends would augur well for Gold and Silver to make larger bounces in 2024.

Regeneron (REGN 0.32% )

Regeneron (REGN 0.32% ) Resiliency in holding near all-time highs makes REGN attractive.  Regeneron continues to show excellent intermediate-term technical structure despite having recently consolidated gains over the last couple months.  Despite a difficult couple months for Healthcare and Biotechnology, REGN has managed to hold up quite resiliently following its push back to a new all-time high weekly close back in late August.   Weekly charts highlight REGN’s upward sloping trend of higher highs and higher lows since 2019, and REGN’s recent churning should help the stock position for a coming move back to new all-time highs.  Weekly closes above $850 would help fuel a move to $900 which initially looks important given it representing the highs of an ongoing multi-year uptrend channel.  REGN’s consolidation in recent months has helped to lessen its overbought state and makes this attractive to hold for a coming rally.  Any weakness into December should constitute a chance to buy dips, and only a break of June’s lows near $684 would postpone REGN’s rally. 

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG -1.51% )

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG -1.51% ) Recent improvement bodes well for additional ISRG gains.  ISRG -1.51%  looks attractive following its four-month downtrend line breakout last week which helped the stock push higher to reclaim nearly 50% of the damage which occurred since July.  Despite the stock’s violation of August lows near $282 which also lie near prior peaks from last November, ISRG managed to successfully bottom right near its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July-October decline.  Furthermore, weekly momentum gauges like MACD are converging towards a bullish crossover which likely could occur this coming week.  Given the rally in many Medical Devices stocks following the pullback in Treasury yields over the last month, a larger pullback in rates which could be likely in 2024 should further help this Med.Tech group and ISRG in particular to show even more progress.  Key resistance lies near $321 initially, then $358 which represented July 2023 highs.  Any ability to quickly regain all-time high territory would improve its intermediate-term technical situation as this would help form a large bullish Cup and Handle technical pattern. Overall, support lies near October lows at $254.85 and can’t be broken without postponing an ISRG rally and would damage its technical pattern.  At present, the recent comeback bodes well for ISRG to outperform the Healthcare sector relatively and this remains an attractive risk/reward within the sector

Freeport McMoRan (FCX 0.92% )

Freeport McMoRan (FCX 0.92% ) Rally in Copper should help FCX bounce following its recent stabilization.  Freeport McMoRan has proven disappointing given its pullback from July given a prolonged decline in the price of Copper.   The stock lies at crucial support in the short run at $33 and it’s thought that this level is important for the stock to hold for any chance of a 4^th Quarter Rally to get underway.  FCX”s four weeks of consolidation near this key level demonstrate why it has technical significance.  Overall, the stock’s technical pattern is still in relatively good shape from an intermediate-term perspective as it’s still holding within the top quartile of its larger range from the 2020 bottom.  However, it’s not wrong to label this stock technically neutral in the short run until this can manage to push back above $44.  This would help jump-start the stock’s potential for a 2024 rally, and should help drive a move back to new all-time highs.  China’s recent stabilization and attempted rally given the decline in the US Dollar is thought to be bullish for the prospects of Copper over the next year, and this should be helpful to FCX’s prospects.  At present, FCX looks like an attractive risk/reward at $36 given its well-defined risk levels at $32.83. 

Upticks Additions

AXON Enterprises (AXON -1.05% )

AXON Enterprises ($AXON) AXON Enterprises continues to be one of the better stocks within the entire Security/Defense space, and technically trades near the highs of a 2.5 year Cup and Handle pattern that began back in February 2021.   While it remains under peaks that were made back in April 2023, this minor consolidation lies within a sharp uptrend as part of a rally from last May 2022 that carried AXON back to new high territory.   The near-term pattern has improved given last week’s weekly close back at new all-time highs, and weekly and monthly momentum are positively sloped and not overbought.  A weekly close back over $230 looks likely in the weeks ahead and should help drive AXON up to $262, or a 61.8% Alternative Fibonacci retracement projection of last year’s rally from May 2022 into April 2023.  Intermediate-term targets lie near $324.  Pullbacks to $200-$210 should represent attractive support, and it will take a move back under $189 to cause deterioration to the near-term structure.  Overall, AXON looks appealing as a stock that has an above-average chance of accelerating back to new all-time highs given the recent strength over the last few weeks and ongoing bullish technical structure.

Textron (TXT)

Textron (TXT) Following its all-time high monthly close in TXT back in July, Textron has been able to successfully weather much of the US stock market decline over the past 10 weeks.   While many investors might be concentrating on the pattern over the last year, it’s important to take TXT’s long-term formation into account, which shows the presence of a large Cup and Handle pattern in the works since late 2007.  Two separate attempts have been made to break out above former all-time highs from 16 years prior.  However, no material deterioration has occurred in its pattern.  Thus, the recent sideways pattern looks more bullish than bearish, and should allow for a coming breakout during a time of heightened geopolitical risk.  Consecutive weekly closes back over $80 would likely help drive acceleration up towards $100 which would be the first realistic near-term target on a move back over $80.   Conversely, pullbacks likely should not violate May 2023 lows at $61.27, and this should translate into a buying opportunity on any weakness in the weeks to come, with ideal support found near $70.   Overall, the ability to have held its ground during a time of market weakness seems clearly constructive for TXT, and I expect this stock to turn up sharply into end of year and outperform in 2024.

Upticks Deletions

• CBOE Global Holdings – (CBOE 0.55% )
• Amgen – (AMGN -0.58% )

Laggards Additions

(Expect all these stocks likely will move lower technically in weeks/months ahead)

• Trade Desk (TTD)   Support – $40,  Resistance – $76
• Paycom Software (PAYC 0.63% )   Support – $100,  Resistance – $200, $237
• Liberty Global (LBYTA) Support – $12,  Resistance – $18
• Keysight Technologies (KEYS -0.33% ) Support – $107, Resistance – $150
• Roku (ROKU 3.76% ) Support – $55, Resistance – $110
• Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) Support – $150, Resistance – $232
• Fidelity National Information Services (FIS 1.48% ) Support- $47, Resistance – $57
• Solar Edge (SEDG 5.54% )  Support – $63,  Resistance – $89

Laggards Deletions

• Target (TGT)
• KeyCorp (KEY -1.33% )

Sector Summary