Strength in stocks YTD is explained by better fundamentals + drop in VIX. And now 26 groups are in solid positive trend (vs 4 a month ago). Next week remains one of most critical of 2023.

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VIX is arguably the largest driver of equities YTD

The upside breakout in equities puts the S&P 500 near 4,300, a key round number and near the August 2022 highs (4,325). Our base remains that S&P 500 will gain >20% in 2023, so the 4,300 level is a just a "waypoint" but will eventually give way to the idea that equity markets will make new highs this year. The caveat, however, is that next week will see two events that are arguably the most critical to 2H23:

June 13: May CPI and the key is a Core MoM inflation <0.4% (Street 0.4% and prior 0.4%). A 0.3% or lower reading would be seen as a positive surprise. June 14: June FOMC and a pause is consensus. Oddly, the Fed futures sees 28% chance of a June hike and ~80% of a July hike (cum prob). If May Core CPI <0.4%, then we see these odds dropping to zero for each month. So one can see why next week might be the most consequential week for the rest of 2023. Our view remains that inflation is tracking lower than consensus/Fed see and it is just a matter of time before the lagged CPI/PCE reports re...

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