6 reasons equities likely rally next 8 weeks. Seasonals of "rule of 1st 5 days" implies 4,250 by end of April. With 14.8X P/E (ex-FAANG), S&P 500 not expensive.

The softness in equities since mid-February has not yet reversed, but we believe the window is soon emerging where this softness will give way to an 8-week period where equities will rally strongly. This is a scenario that many investors are hesitant to embrace (more likely skeptical) because of the understandable lack of clarity on inflation trajectory, Fed policy path, earnings risk and general heightened concerns about recession. And as usually is the case, when there is uncertainty, investors lean negative—meaning, the conditions confirm investors leaning bearish or outright bearish.

Here are the reason we see equities gaining in the next 8 weeks:

The last of the "hot" inflation data was the 4Q ULC (unit labor cost) at +3.2% and beginning next week, will be incoming February economic and inflation data, which we believe will show "softer" jobs and "softer" inflationary pressures. This will reverse, to an extent, the somewhat alarming surge in inflation and jobs data of Jan (part seasonal, part noisy data).Fed chair Powell actually kicks off this period with his semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services Committee and we expect Powell to reinforce the "data dependent" message. Meaning, +25bp is the path for March FOMC, barrin...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)