First Word

The last of the "hot" Jan prints is behind us. Payback for Jan equity gains explains markets potential to over-react to "hot" data and that period expected to end early March.

In normal times, one of the adages regarding economic data is "good news is bad news" -- meaning, stronger data means a tougher Fed. This is the regime that has been at play for much of the past 18 months.

Jan saw strong inflation and economic data. And the last of the "hot" January inflation data prints was this past Friday with PCE (personal consumption expenditures). Stocks took a gut punch Friday on the heels of the stronger Core PCE inflation +0.6% vs +0.4% expected. PCE is always the last monthly inflation report (sequence CPI, then PPI, then PCE), so PCE tends to be less informative, but matters as it is the Fed's preferred inflation measure.

The "hot" Jan inflation figures have caused markets to price in "higher for longer" by the Fed, but our view remains the Fed will hike +25bp in March. While the markets are "data reactive" the Fed is "data dependent," and there are multiple reasons to contextualize the Jan data.The obvious question is whether US economic momentum and inflation accelerated in January, or are there other factors at work? As is widely discussed, a combination of above average warm weather, COLA (cost of living) for social security, flawed Jan seasonals (due to Dec) are probably making Jan data look stronger than it appears, both for inflation...

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