Stocks Notch Best Week Since November As Nasdaq Winning Streak Extends to Six Days

Good evening:

The markets opened strongly this week in hopes that Thursday’s CPI reading would be soft and convince the Fed that previous rounds of rate hikes had achieved the desired effect. The release met Street expectations, marking three consecutive months of downside reads. Yields dipped, with the 2-year falling to 4.151% within a couple hours of the release.

As Head of Research Tom Lee has previously noted, the 2-year is considered a proxy for where the bond market thinks the Fed needs to be; it remains to be seen whether the Fed will be convinced. Head of Portfolio Strategy Brian Rauscher is not so sure. In his 2023 Portfolio Strategy Outlook webinar, which took place on Thursday, Brian shared that he believes that the Fed will continue to stay on a “higher for longer” course, with a terminal rate between 5.25% and 6.0%. Brian also cited corporate earnings concerns as he forecast a challenging 1H2023, with the market approaching what he calls “THE bottom” before heading back upward later in the year. 

Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton acknowledged the possibility that a meaningful rally has begun this week, but he observed, “Treasury yields look to have bottomed, and the rally in many sub-industry groups like Retail, Autos, Casinos looks to...