Investors worry Fed playing "whack-a-mole" with equities, but if inflation tanks (with wages slowing), FCIs will ease. First 4 days +1.4% is strong 2023 omen implies +23% gain.

Investors worry Fed playing "whack-a-mole" with stock prices, but if inflation tanks (with wages slowing), FCIs will ease...

Over the weekend, I had a few conversations with clients and one of them observed that while bond market volatility has dropped (which generally is good for stocks), they viewed being "long equities" as a low Sharpe ratio (high risk but high reward) trade:

  • while stocks could have upside given promising developments on both inflation and wages
  • they worry Fed would be alarmed by a rise in stocks (aka "easing financial conditions") so Fed could push back hard, or even push harder on hikes
  • they also worry that ISMs/PMIs could slip even further, and thus, the US economy is slipping towards a "hard landing"
  • this whack-a-mole is why investors see being long as "high risk" (even if there is "high reward").
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But probabilities increasing 2023 a +20% rise for S&P 500, even as consensus sees "flat" stocks prices

Here is what is interesting.

  • Our work suggests odds increasing equities will produce >20% gains in 2023.
So far in 2023, S&P 500 gained +1.4% in first 4 trading days of 2023. Since 1950, this has happened 23 times (of 73 years). Median gain is +17% for full year of those 23 instances with 20...

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