In Choppy Week for Markets Stocks Finish up 0.2%

Equity markets were choppy over the past week. And while impacted by the stalemate in Washington over the fiscal stimulus and the surging COVID-19 cases in Europe and the US, the Standard and Poor’s Index finished the week essentially flat; up 0.2%.

Unfortunately, COVID-19 is spreading at a faster rate in the US. While cases are spreading in nearly every state, this surge since early September is being driven by a new set of about 20 states. Wave 1 was NY tristate, wave 2 was FL, CA, AZ, TX, or F-CAT, and as the chart below shows, these other 20 or so states are driving wave 3.

Daily cases are spreading at such a high-speed in these states to hopefully cause their residents to take appropriate action. Similar to wave 1 and wave 2, I think it’s possible that we see this third wave peak within the next 2 weeks. And if these states avoid a shutdown, this would be good news.

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Nevertheless, it was not all bad news on the COVID-19 front this week. The severity of this wave of cases seems less lethal than prior waves with the US seeing 1% incremental hospitalizations vs 4% in July. And over the next 20 days, equity markets are primarily focused on Washington (election and fiscal stimulus) and the path of COVID-19. Importantly, the

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