Nov Core PCE +0.17% another "tame" inflation report. Dec 2022 PCE tracking to 4.2%, massive schism between Fed "dot plot" forecast of 4.8%.

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November PCE inflation report (today) was another tame inflation with Core +0.17% MoM, a second consecutive tame PCE report and adding to the constellation of "soft" CPI and PPI reports.

  • We continue to view 3M annualized CPI or PCE as a better metric for inflation trends
  • 3M annualized Core PCE collapsed to 3.63% vs 5.23% in Oct and set to fall to 2.14% next month
  • Curiously, Financial Services +.07% of the +0.17% rise, or almost half. How did Financial Services have inflation?
  • Lastly, FOMC forecast for Dec 2022 Core PCE inflation remains 4.8% (range of member forecasts was 4.6% to 5.0%) and is tracking 4.2% Dec 2022.
  • Realized inflation is tracking a staggering 60bp below FOMC forecast.
The video in this report is only accessible to members

Below are the contributors to Core PCE in November.

  • Housing is the largest contributor
  • Next is Financial Services
The video in this report is only accessible to members

Tireless Ken analyzed the components of Financial Services below. As he highlights:

  • Portfolio Management is the primary contributor to the Nov MoM rise.
  • Tireless Ken explains the factors below (see his comments)
The video in this report is only accessible to members

December 2022 inflation tracking WAY below Fed projections

The Decembe...

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