First Word

11 headwinds of 2022 already turned into 11 tailwinds in past month... why YE rally intact

Everyone working off same "Fed gameplan" which we expect to change as inflation breaking to downside

The Thanksgiving holiday has ended and now markets are entering the final key weeks of 2022. It has been a tremendously difficult year for markets and much of the carnage is owed to the seeming unstoppable surge in inflation.

  • this has forced the Fed to pursue a "hurry to get higher" strategy
  • and because of the uncertainty of inflation's path caused markets, CEOs and public to fall in line with Fed gameplan
  • Fed is setting consensus views on inflation
  • but Fed is not "all seeing" and thus, if the path of inflation changes
  • so will Fed and so will market consensus
  • this is a key point that I feel is often lost in the market narrative
  • if inflation softens, this would be a "change" in Fed view (which argued there has been no progress on inflation)
  • as we noted in prior comments, we see the soft Oct CPI as repeatable and expect Nov CPI (released 12/13) to be similarly soft
  • October CPI was a "game changer" in our view
  • Nov CPI will be the "game changer-er" or further solidify that inflation's back is broken

Thus, while many may be tempted to "close the books" for the year, we think the final 5 weeks will be "fireworks".

11 Headwinds of 2022 have already turned into Tailwinds

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