QQQ playing catchup while Defensives underperform Array ( [cookie] => 036ab8-6547a6-cf8512-7b95b8-269f28 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_macro [visitor_id] => 591084 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
The extension of this week’s rally helped markets show greater than 5-8% gains, but has begun to change texture a bit as the week has come to a close. The former outperformance in DJIA has shifted a bit towards cyclicals and Technology while Defensive issues lagged sharply on Friday. While the DJIA had already broken out above its downtrend from early 2022, the QQQ has just started its bounce and successfully broke out above late October peaks as the week came to a close. Markets are heading into a historically tough time of the month of recent history is any guide, as the last three peaks all happened between the 13th and 15th of the month. Yet, breadth has expanded sharply and should allow for some cushion on any pullback to consolidate gains ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday. Overall, I expect that the US Dollar along with Treasury yields likely make a short-term bottom next week, and this likely coincides with a minor SPX pullback. However unless 3850 is breached, weakness is likely going to prove minor and buyable for the time being. I expect SPX to follow the trend of the 60-year cycle up into early December without much serious damage. The QQQ breakout is shown below.
DJIA has successfully broken downtrends from January
Don’t look now, but the DJIA’s rally has brought it to within 7% of its all-time high close as this week has come to a close. In what was thought to be a nearly impossible feat, DJIA has successfully broken its downtrend for 2022, led by strong performance out of stocks like JPM, CAT, GS, BA, IBM and INTC.
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