Markets on edge into Sept CPI report (10/13) but tightening FCI provides some positive "skew" into the report.

Equities have become incredibly fragile, as knock-on effects from central bank tightening further pressure equity risk premia higher (lower multiples). And investors generally fear that inflation is not falling at a pace fast enough to prevent more aggressive measures by the Fed. The most important economic report this week is the September CPI report (released Thursday 10/13). Inflation has proven to be difficult to forecast and given the negative "shock" from the August CPI (9/13), it would be difficult for any investor to have conviction going into this report.

  • the WSJ article below (by Nick Timiraos) highlights that the Fed is grappling with the same issue
  • "inflation... has consistently defied such forecasts"
  • in short, the Fed and markets are "data dependent"
The video in this report is only accessible to members

Today (10/12), there are some other important events like PPI and FOMC minutes, but the CPI report on 10/13 is the most important.

The video in this report is only accessible to members

DATA DEPENDENCY CPI: Has been the case for 2022

Look at the equity market reaction post-CPI in 2022 so far.

Each CPI report has resulted in a substantial move in equities"good" reports/reactions, drove big rises (CPIs Feb, June, July reports)"bad" reports drove massive declines (CPIs Dec, Jan and A...

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