Perspective on June CPI. Gasoline might be "deflationary" in July CPI if 9 prior oil declines are precedent.

This is an intraday First Word to discuss Energy upside surprise in June CPI

Gasoline might be "deflationary" in July if 9 prior oil declines are precedent

The June CPI was "ugly" and an upside surprise. The YoY was +9.1% versus consensus +8.8%.

  • Motor fuel (gasoline) was the single biggest driver of upside surprise
  • YOY: +2.3% of the +9.1%
  • MOM: +0.55% of the +1.3%
  • No surprise, this is also the single biggest driver of consumer perceptions of CPI as well

The video in this report is only accessible to members

Oil is down >25% from the peak, why is fuel lagging?

Oil is down >25% from its peak and is back to pre-Russia Ukraine levels. And this happened in June. Many expected this to show up in the June CPI.

  • as shown below
  • for the month, oil was down 4% (spot to spot, not average)
  • but motor fuel showed a +11% month over month
  • this is a huge 1,500bp differential
The video in this report is only accessible to members

Since 1980, gasoline CPI lags oil moves by median 1 month...

There have been 9 instances of oil rolling over meaningfully since 1980. Take a look below.

  • we flagged >20% drawdowns in oil
  • CPI Motor fuel (Gasoline) lags are highlighted
  • median is 1 month
  • this implies July CPI motor fuel will reflect the >25% drop in oil prices
The video in this report is only accessible to members
Often, this effect is m...

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