Increasingly looks like markets mistook "bullwhip" effect of supply chain (including food) for secular inflation = Fed less behind = supports risk assets

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Increasing signs that inflationary pressures easing, except for tight labor

Over the past few weeks, there are increasingly convincing signs that inflationary pressures are easing. But we believe investors are ignoring signs that the incoming data is tracking closer to the "half-full" view -- inflationary pressures are outright falling for many items and the lack of "unhealthy imbalances" means the risk to the cycle are lower. In fact, consider these latest developments collectively. These are not congruent with "inflation out of control"

industrial metals decliningagricultural commodities decliningretailers sitting on record inventorieshousing inventory at multi-year highsdiscounts on new home listingsregional PMIs showing "prices received" are declining shar...

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