Multiple signs economy shifting to “buyer’s market” vs seller’s = downside to inflation = justify stocks strengthening

Economy (parts) becoming a “buyer’s market” reversing “seller’s market” since 2020 = downside to inflation

I had a conversation earlier this week with the owner of one of the largest privately held food producers in the US (tens of millions of pounds sized, so huge). RM, the owner spent the pandemic in Maui but was able to run his business remotely, and during the pandemic, was able to raise prices nearly continuously since early 2020.

  • but in the past 6 weeks, the environment changed
  • switched from a seller’s market “I can raise prices 2% every month because Costco will buy this if you don’t pay”
  • to a buyer’s market “give me a discount”
  • RM attributed this to easing supply chains, which now makes access to protein easier
  • and he sees outright “deflation” coming for fish, chicken and beef prices
  • yup, deflation, not inflation

This is a big change. A commodity becoming a buyer’s market. And in fact, in his view, much of the rise of food/protein prices is not demand driven, but really due to supply chains causing scarcity. And as he sees delivery times falling fast, he thinks many prices of food items in the US could fall.

Market has taken out 1.5 Fed hikes (by YE) since March 2022 = incrementally dovish

This is so counter to consensus thinking...

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