COVID-19 UPDATE: S&P 500 Mega-caps not a "bubble" as Top 5 earnings share = top 5 market cap share. San Diego CFA poll shows CFA holders bearish.

Thursday was a rough day in the markets, with a fierce sell-off and S&P 500 down >1%.  The carnage was in the mega-caps and there is a growing chorus that the S&P 500 is distorted by the outsized market cap of the Big 5 tech names.  We have seen multiple citations of the "craziness" of this market as the top 5 are now 22% weight of the S&P 500.  We discuss this at length below, but we just don't see the bubble. The top 5 stocks (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, FB, GOOG) are 18% of earnings and like >80% of 2020 EPS growth.  So, their 22% market cap share does not seem so out of line with their nearly 20% net income share.  After all, aren't these franchise cos?It looks like this is the week that definitely saw US case surge finally plateau (and hopefully turn into a decline this weekend).  It looks like all the mitigation measures taken in the past few weeks are working.  And the White House is now endorsing mask use.  Thus, we see the economy risks diminishing. And as we have commented in the past, as the national disease panic fades, local behavior recovers.  In fact, our survey of San Diego CFA members conducted this evening (see the last bullet) shows how CFA members' perception of national trends governs their own personal decisions. This is why we are not to...

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