COVID-19 UPDATE: COVID-19 is DECLINING per IHME model -- "daily infections" down 72% to 73k/day from 260k/day at the peak in late March

ALERT: Equity markets are closed Friday, July 3rd, due to the US Independence Day holiday.  So we do not plan to publish an update Thursday eve/Friday am.  Happy 4th!!

We got some incrementally positive news today from Pfizer and BioNTech, which are working jointly on a vaccine.  Their first clinical trial shows positive results and specifically, those receiving this vaccine showed high levels of neutralizing antibodies (1.8-2.8X that of recovered patients).  This development is adding to the Fauci belief that some type of commercial COVID-19 vaccine will be available in early 2021.  And if this is the case, the pathway to putting COVID-19 behind is visible.Dr. Scott Gottlieb was on CNBC this morning, and he commented that he believes the "infection rate" is 10X the "case confirmed" rate.  That is, he believes the US has 400,000-500,000 new infections per day, but only 44,000 are "detected" and "confirmed" -- a really key suggestion, because this has implications for disease prevalence (closer to the infection break point), but also regarding disease severity (hospitalization rates are far lower, if correct).  Basically, there are:- infections: people who contract COVID-19- cases:       people who show symptoms- detected:...

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