First Word

Fed lift-off getting pushed off + 20% drop in VIX = risk-on probabilities soar (buy this dip)

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STRATEGY: VIX down -20% + VIX term structure steepening = risk-on probability soar

COVID-19 cases will be distorted for the next two weeks due to Thanksgiving
Underlying COVID-19 trends often get distorted due to holidays, something we have written about in the past. Our data science team is showing the following for Thanksgiving's 2020 impact:

- cases in 2021 are far lower than this time in 2020
- cases were 150,000 in 2020, compared to 70,000 in 2021

- in 2020, post-Thanksgiving, cases fell but this is partially due to closure of testing centers and delays
- but then in the following two weeks, cases soared

Bottom line, expect US COVID-19 cases to surge in the next 10 days, But this is not necessarily due to a rise in trend, but a true-up of cases.

The video in this report is only accessible to members

Pent-up demand: TSA travel throughput back nearly to 2019 levels...
As we stated in yesterday's First Word, we think the decision to close borders for travel is nearly a ludicrous policy decision -- and hardly reflecting policymaker realization that COVID-19 is becoming endemic.

- And as South Africa has noted, by penalizing nations for flagging variants- it is a dis...

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