Consumer overreact to COVID + Inflation blurring = Strategy to Barbell Energy + FANG

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STRATEGY: Consumer overreact to COVID + Inflation blurring = Barbell Energy + FANG

Two key issues into YE --> COVID-19 path + inflation risks
As we look into the final three months of 2021, the two most important market pivots/knife edge are:

- direction of COVID-19 = consumer behavior
- path of inflation = high, demand destruction risk and lower, relief

So, this is what we expect the financial markets to focus on.  And there are many ways to frame the risks around each.  At the moment, COVID-19 trends look very promising, so this is a good thing.

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If COVID-19 recedes into YE 2021, Consumer confidence might surge = positiveOn the consumer side, the path of the virus is a pretty straightforward issue:- Seasonal risks rise as we enter flu season = bad- Delta variant still burning through some states = somewhat bad (expiration date)- New variant = bad, but none identified- Merck anti-virals soon to get approval = good- Boosters likely to get approved for J&J and Moderna = good- College/ back-to-school no impacts = goodSo, on balance, this looks to be tracking towards a "half-full" view i...

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