COVID-19 UPDATE: Major news on HCQ Wed? Latest GH consumer survey shows increase in willingness to leave home. Hispanics are 31% of US COVID-19 cases, nearly 2X population. Array ( [cookie] => d179b6-9822d3-b55f71-3a1ca2-531e3f [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 1 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 40051 [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest.
Protests that are still raging in >75 cities across the US are breaking the COVID-19 progress timeline. We have mass gathering, which is 1000X mass transmission events. So, a factual observation is that after ~3 months of shelter-at-home, all discipline was cast aside. But it is not a guarantee that we see a second wave, despite the fact that Italy's and Spain's massive outbreaks began with a Champions League soccer match. If it does not lead to a second wave, it is the most significant worldwide event for COVID-19.
The first protests started 5 days ago and according to multiple studies (below) ~92% of those exposed to COVID-19 are symptomatic by day 14 (50% by Day 7). Day 14 is June 11th. So if no massive second wave starts by June 11th, we have a definitive break in the transmissibility of COVID-19. So the best case is no surges in the next 11 days.
We are presenting race/ethnicity COVID-19 data in this commentary. 47 states report consistent information and our data science team, led by tireless Ken, ingested this data (collected and reported by COVID-19 Tracking Project). I was pretty shocked at the data. Blacks and Hispanics are 53% of COVID-19 cases in the US and about 30% of the population. Asians and Whites are far less likely to have COVID-19.
% pop % COVID delta
- White 60% 40% -20%
- Hispanic 17 31 +13 <-2X
- Black 13 22 +10 <-2X
- Asian 6 4 -2
-Other 3 2 -1
So as we are now >125 days into this pandemic, COVID-19 has hit the following particularly hard:
- NYC / NY tri-state
- Nursing homes (45% of deaths)
- Blacks/Hispanics (53% of cases)
Is the latter issue due to Vitamin D deficiencies? Last week, we wrote about how Vitamin D deficiency is worse in Black/Hispanic communities. As we highlight below, this concentration of cases with Black/Hispanic is throughout the US. So, there is something odd about this.
Potentially some major peer-reviewed announcement on hydroxychloroquine on Wednesday -- could be market moving...
Could this move markets Wednesday? See this cryptic tweet below, which has since been deleted. This tweet was shared with me by Xuan Yong, CEO of Rig-Up, before it was deleted.
He is an infectious disease specialist at the University of Minnesota and he has been conducting multiple studies on hydroxychloroquine, both as a treatment and as a preventative drug for COVID-19. And his studies are being peer reviewed. There is a lot of secrecy on his work and this cryptic tweet might suggest some big news on COVID-19 Wednesday.
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