COVID-19 UPDATE. As cases 'apex', 41 states (+4) growth <10%, mortality peak +4 days (19 nations). "low market value/employee stocks" might be good way look at epicenter stocks?

We realize there is widespread interest in tracking COVID-19 developments, and thus, please feel free to forward these updates to anyone who has interests.



There is some positive development today, with the most notable being Gov. Cuomo, during his daily briefing, introduced a new "purple" line showing a new potential mortality trajectory.  Take a look below.  The top line was NY state's original baseline which expected 110,000 NY-ers to perish by late May.  And then the light blue line reflected strict social distancing measures, but still projected 55,000 deaths by late April (1 month earlier).

- this new "purple line" is kind of flatlining at 12,000-15,000 deaths (hard to tell).
- Gov. Cuomo referred to this purple line as the new "possible" trajectory, based on recent data (which remains encouraging).
- And a new message was introduced -- "KEEP UP SOCIAL DISTANCING, DON'T GO OUT AND CELEBRATE" and PAUSE remains in place until 4/29.

If mortality peaks at 12,000-15,000 statewide, this remains a human tragedy, but far less carnage than the 110,000 which was the basis for much of the Governor's actions three weeks ago.  This falls into the category that the "realized" results are beating Cuomo's best case (recall, last week, he said the apex was "7 --> 14 --> 28 days" based on various models they use).



We will give only a brief update on NYC because there seems to be a broader story of US-wide case counts decelerating and this leads us to highlight when peak mortality may happen (based on 19 countries). 

POINT #1: New York City remains stable on new cases, and we squint, it is probably turning downwards.  Deaths similar story.
As we have noted many times, NY state is the epicenter of the US COVID-19 breakout and NYC is ground zero.  And the relatively stable/improving trends in NYC continue.  Total new cases were 3,821 which is flat (at worst) and potentially turning downwards.

- Deaths per day have leveled off at 266.  

Now 266 deaths per day is a big number for NYC, which normally sees 450 deaths per day.  Thus, flat deaths still mean many NYC residents are senselessly perishing.  But this figure remaining stable is pointing to the spread flattening or at least moving from exponential growth to linear.  

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