The S&P 500 index stalled in an almost perfect text book reversal from heavy resistance at its 200-week sma near 2340 this week, that is, a rally to resistance at the 200-week simple moving average, and then a pullback.
The challenge for investors is to decide whether the late March bounce was merely a bear-market dead cat bounce, with lower lows likely, which is, understandably, a view held by many. Or that it was likely the early stages of a bottoming process, the view I outlined here last week.
The vast majority of market bottoms, with the exception of Q4 2018, involved 6-weeks to 4-months of consolidation often involving a retest or secondary low. My view continues to be that market bottoms are a process, not a single event and that a trading range is likely to develop well into, and possibly through April as the market digests what most expect to be a difficult earnings season.
Here’s my thinking: Is a market retest or secondary low consensus? After discussions with buyside managers and other technical analysts over the past week and through the weekend, I thought it was noteworthy that even those that are optimistic (cautiously, of course) expected some type of pullback or retest in 2Q, possibly 3Q, as we do.
I can’t quantify the implication of this qualitative, subjective outlook, but it did raise the question of whether the path of greatest pain to asset managers was actually higher. Perhaps a push above the 200-week sma toward the 50-62% retracement levels between 2800-2900 was more likely sooner than later.
SPX Daily
3rd downside move underway after failing at 200-week sma. Key short-term levels: 2474 (15-dma), 2416-2363 at 50-62% retracements
Figure: Weekly Sector Review
Source: FS Insight, Factset
Figure: Best and worst performance sectors over past 3 months
