Summary

- COVID-19 case trends have appeared to tick up and the 7D delta has been positive for two consecutive days, we will watch very closely for market implications.

- 16 out of 50 states are showing a rise in cases vs. 7D ago. This could be noise or ‘true-up’ caused by delayed reporting but we’ve noticed some correlation to vaccination rates.

- We think several positive factors are aligning for the first time in a while that will make our mid-year S&P 500 target plausible including, a falling VIX, high-yield debt markets, and situation around rates.

- The market’s rally in the wake of a rough week influenced by Quad-Witching and FOMC meeting bodes well and market made two all-time-highs this week.

US daily cases are not really showing much improvement of the past few days when looking at the 7D delta and although the rise is only currently occurring in 16/50 states, we will continue to watch this very closely. This is much less severe than the upturn in cases seen in the UK but the rate of improvement does appear to be slowing.

When looking closer at whether or not the difference could be accounted for by vaccine penetration there appears to be a potentially causal relationship. Tireless Ken put this chart together showing the “delta in ca...

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