Lots of noise last week, but little signal. We continue to see US expansion as mostly early cycle.

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STRATEGY: Lots of noise last week, but little signal
Yesterday was Father's Day in the US (and some other places), and this is a holiday to celebrate our own father's and also to recognize those who are a father to someone -- either their own child or someone else in their life. I spent yesterday making some ribs (sorry, not smoked, since the cooking time is so short) and generally enjoying the wonderful weather.

As for markets, to call last week choppy is somewhat of an understatement, but it was tumultuous given the combination of volatility inducing factors:

- FOMC meeting, and one where Fed has recognized the reduction of pandemic tail risks
- Quad witching (expiry of stock options, stock futures, index options, index futures) and the second largest in history

Markets were therefore roiled both in the rates (fixed income) and equity world (quad witching)

NOISE --> FOMC hawkish surprise, but interest rates fell --> Noise --> Was market was too hawkish?As many of our clients know, we recently have discussed how we see downside risk to interest rates, relative to consensus view. This is not...

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