What Our Clients Are Talking About Behind The Scenes

FLASH COMMENTS


Before getting into today’s weekly Whispers note, I wanted to make a couple comments:

  • My work remains medium-term bullish.
  • Buy tactical dips in Financials and Cyclical/Reflation trades.
  • Sell relative strength in defensive areas — Utilities and Health Care.
  • Growth/FAANG remains as tilt above benchmark — have less exposure than pre-4Q20 but note they were never suggested to be abandoned — do not chase any tactical outperformance.

More to come on the supporting evidence.  Stay tuned. 


QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

What do you make of the decline in 10-yr yields?  Should I be making portfolio shifts?

I have stated from time to time I try to refrain from making too many comments about areas that I do not have objective tools/models to support my conclusions.  However, the bond market action since March has been extreme in my view and I have received a lot of questions regarding my thoughts.  

So, let us do a quick rehash of what has happened and what I have been saying and my current thoughts on this week’s fall in rates (all using the 10-yr US Treasury yield as my interest rate proxy):

1. Yields start rising from the latter parts of January (1.0%) and then in mid-March breaks above technical chart resistance at 1.5% and sprints to a peak near 1.8%.

...
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