COVID-19 UPDATE: ALERT!!! Downside "break" in USA COVID-19 as two consecutive days <60,000 cases ala Israel template. Timeline matches Israel

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

We are shifting to a 4-day a week publication schedule:

  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • SKIP THURSDAY
  • Friday NO REPORT (getting vaccine shot #2)

STRATEGY: ALERT!!!! USA cases could be “collapsing”
Our data science team, led by tireless Ken, just published the latest COVID-19 statistics.  And the improvement is so “anomalous” that I need to alert our clients about this:

– 7D delta is collapsing
– Wed eve vs 7D ago is -10,696

Two consecutive days now of massive declines in 7D ago case change.  The largest two day swing since December 2020.

COVID-19 UPDATE: ALERT!!! Downside break in USA COVID-19 as two consecutive days <60,000 cases ala Israel template. Timeline matches Israel



Look at the absolute number of cases.

– this Wed was 59,983
– week ago Wed 70,679
– two weeks ago Wed 71,017
– three weeks ago Wed 64,168
– four weeks ago Wed 60,509

This Wed figure is a “downside” break — or the “leg down” we have been expecting as US vaccinations approach that 40% figure that led to a massive decline in Israel.


COVID-19 UPDATE: ALERT!!! Downside break in USA COVID-19 as two consecutive days <60,000 cases ala Israel template. Timeline matches Israel

Even MI is posting big time declines.  Wut?  And look at NY, FL, PA, etc.  Big time declines.

– something big is happening


COVID-19 UPDATE: ALERT!!! Downside break in USA COVID-19 as two consecutive days <60,000 cases ala Israel template. Timeline matches Israel




And recall, this would be consistent with reaching 40% vaccine penetration.

– In Israel, when this was happening, cases literally “fell off a cliff”
– If USA matches Israel, USA will be 8,500 cases per day by June 2021 from 60,000 currently

COVID-19 UPDATE: ALERT!!! Downside break in USA COVID-19 as two consecutive days <60,000 cases ala Israel template. Timeline matches Israel





STRATEGY: If USA cases are falling “off a cliff” = Epicenter gonna run big!!!
If USA cases are falling, this is a “downside” breakout in the case data.  The case data has stalled in the past 3 weeks and equity markets have been equally mired.

But if USA cases are breaking to the downside, winners are:

– Epicenter aka Cyclicals –> Travel, Hotels, airlines, etc
– Epicenter proxies –> small-caps (IWM 0.59% ) and SPHB
– Materials and Energy –> this trade will resurge XLE 0.22%  OIH -1.19%  KLXE -7.28%  CLF 0.89%  etc

Bottom line, this is a significant bullish equity development.  Recall, we saw a ’13’ buy signal for XLE recently (based on DeMark indicators) and this improvement in case trends would amplify that.

That said, the future is uncertain.  But it seems like a “downside” break in COVID-19 is taking place.

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Stay up to date with the latest articles and business updates. Subscribe to our newsletter

Articles Read 1/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

Stay up to date with the latest articles. You’ll even get special recommendations weekly.

Already have an account? Sign In

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)