Pope’s Funeral, Tariff Tensions, Congress Returns

Key Takeaways
  • The funeral of Pope Francis on Saturday will include a gathering of world leaders including President Donald Trump, providing opportunities for fruitful face-to-face meetings on the side.
  • The tariff situation with China remains uncertain, but the possibility exists that South Korea could become the first ally to reach a trade agreement with the U.S.
  • Congress will return from a two-week recess next week, resuming attempts to make progress on a budget bill to fund President Trump's agenda.

On Saturday, Pope Francis will be buried in Rome, and President Donald Trump and other world leaders will attend the service. With global tensions ranging from the Trump tariff policy to the effort to end the war in Ukraine in the spotlight, events that attract world leaders can be accompanied by talks and meetings on the sidelines.  President Trump’s stay in Rome will be brief, but there will be chances for one or more important encounters that could impact policy.

Tariffs

It’s been another week of tariff tensions, especially with China.  While on Thursday, the Chinese government stated that there were no ongoing trade talks with the U.S., President Trump reported that talks had begun.  There are concerns in areas such as defense and technology because of the Chinese limits on the export of rare earth minerals to the U.S., which could cause production problems.  As I have written before, President Trump likes having direct interactions as part of his policy formation, and a phone call with President Xi seems like it may be the avenue to start U.S./China trade talks.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated this week that trade talks with South Korea are making real progress, and it may be the first ally to reach an agreement. A trade deal with South Korea could become a template for other deals with key trading partners.

Congress

After a two-week break for Passover and Easter, Congress returns next week. The focus of attention will be on the House, where discussions are expected to start on the major Budget Reconciliation Bill.  The bill is expected to include much of President Trump’s key agenda items, ranging from the renewal of his 2017 tax cuts to budget reductions and expanded funding for defense and border policy.  Additionally, the Congressional leadership hopes to use the broad budget bill to increase the debt ceiling, which projections suggest will be reached in the coming months.   

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