A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell.
“It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye.” — Antoine de Saint-Exupery
Chart of the Day
Good morning!
Investors have taken to using defense to play offense, just like the Philadelphia Eagles did at the big game last month.
Some days tariffs are in place. Other days tariffs get delayed, at least for some industries. Understandably, Wall Street’s fear gauge has jumped in recent days to its highest levels since December.
The confusion has sent investors into shares of good old, reliable sectors of the market. The S&P 500’s best performer this year is the healthcare sector—adding 8.5%—followed by the consumer staples and real-estate sector, which are up 6.8% and 6.5%, respectively. Other havens have benefited, too. Gold prices have jumped 11% this year, while yields on the 10-year Treasury bond yield have fallen to 4.281% this year. Bond yields fall when prices jump.
In comparison, tech darlings have flopped to start the year. Nvidia has tumbled 13% in 2025, Amazon has slid 5%, and Microsoft has tumbled 4.9%.
One can perceive this rearranging of market’s winners and losers as the usual “this is a rush to safety” angle because investors are nervous about how long tariffs might last and whether corporations will be able to pass down any price increases to consumers. (Investors pile into defensive corners of the market during signs of anxiety, hoping that consumers will cut discretionary spending before lowering purchases tied to staples, healthcare, and rent.)
But there’s also an argument to be made that even this defensive move is showing signs of risk appetite.
Over the past two years, market pundits have raised alarm over stocks’ skyhigh valuations and warned about an imminent collapse of a “market bubble,” encouraging many to hide out in cash. Even the mighty Warren Buffet is hoarding cash. Of course, if you had stuck with all-cash over the past two years, you would have missed out on gains of 50%.
Perhaps investors have learned from this lesson, and that’s why they’re not keen to take money out of the market but instead put it to work in other areas, no matter how boring.
The hefty dividend yields offered by these sectors probably help to ease the ennui. Real estate boasts a 3.2% yield, while staples and healthcare provide 2.2% and 1.6%, respectively.
Catch Up With FS Insight
Yesterday had first signs of capitulatory behavior, as a weak ADP report brought odds of a May Fed cut to 45% early in the day.
TECHNICAL
Overall, given that DeMark-based counter-trend exhaustion is now present on VIX, TNX, SPY, and QQQ, I sense that stocks are well positioned to bottom out.
CRYPTO
We take a deep dive into the latest developments from AAVE, especially as it introduces new value accrual mechanisms for its token.
News We’re Following
Breaking News
- ECB cuts interest rate to 2.5% FT
- European leaders meet in Brussels, vowing ‘new era’ for defense SEM
Markets and economy
- China Is Secretly Worried Trump Will Win on Trade WSJ
- US employers cut more jobs last month than any February since 2009 CNN
- A $1.5 Billion Hack: How the Biggest Crypto Heist in History Went Down NYT
Business
- Macy’s turnaround starts to take shape, but ailing stores weigh on quarterly results CNBC
- Meta product chief says Llama 4 will power AI agents CNBC
Politics
- Draft of Trump Executive Order Aims to Eliminate Education Department WSJ
- The world is beginning to tire of Trump’s whiplash leadership CNN
- ‘Obstacles’ in Egypt’s $53 billion plan to rebuild Gaza, install Palestinian Authority control CNBC
- ‘Read this e-mail immediately’: CDC tells about 180 fired employees to come back to work AP
Overseas
- How Europe could seize frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine CNBC
Of Interest
- Zelenskyy fashion designer: ‘In wartime, politicians don’t need suits’ FT
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -64
point(s) (-1.1%
) Overnight range: -69 to +2 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei +0.77%
Topix +1.22% China SHCOMP +1.17% Hang Seng +3.29% Korea +0.7% Singapore +0.48% Australia -0.57% India +0.93% Taiwan -0.68% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 -0.28%
Stoxx 600 -0.51% FTSE 100 -0.96% DAX +0.32% CAC 40 -0.47% Italy +0.22% IBEX -0.44% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) -0.14%
to 104.14 EUR/USD +0.05% to 1.0794 GBP/USD -0.16% to 1.2875 USD/JPY -0.65% to 147.91 USD/CNY +0.16% to 7.2484 USD/CNH +0.15% to 7.2475 USD/CHF -0.44% to 0.8871 USD/CAD +0.11% to 1.4355 AUD/USD -0.09% to 0.6329 |
| Crypto |
| BTC +1.04%
to 91317.56 ETH +2.82% to 2298.89 XRP +5.54% to 2.6392 Cardano -1.86% to 0.9639 Solana +5.17% to 152.56 Avalanche +2.21% to 22.21 Dogecoin +3.53% to 0.2112 Chainlink +7.15% to 17.55 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX +6.89%
to 23.44 WTI Crude +0.39% to 66.57 Brent Crude +0.35% to 69.54 Nat Gas -1.8% to 4.37 RBOB Gas -0.06% to 2.136 Heating Oil +0.58% to 2.254 Gold -0.57% to 2902.8 Silver -0.93% to 32.36 Copper -0.92% to 4.723 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -0.3bps
to 4.3014% 3M -0.6bps to 4.2983% 6M -2.7bps to 4.2207% 12M -3.3bps to 4.0324% 2Y -2.1bps to 3.9838% 5Y -0.2bps to 4.0768% 7Y +1.3bps to 4.1926% 10Y +1.9bps to 4.2975% 20Y +2.3bps to 4.6314% 30Y +2.0bps to 4.592% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 2.8bps to -33.8
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread widened 4.0bps to 31.0 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 0.1bps to 29.1 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX +1.12%
SPX Eq Wt +0.93% NASDAQ 100 +1.36% NASDAQ Comp +1.46% Russell Midcap +1.15% R2k +1.02% R1k Value +0.85% R1k Growth +1.44% R2k Value +0.8% R2k Growth +1.24% FANG+ +0.78% Semis +1.85% Software +1.74% Biotech +1.96% Regional Banks -0.56% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Materials +2.63% Cons Disc +1.75% Indu +1.59% Comm Srvcs +1.5% Tech +1.39% SPX +1.12% REITs +1.01% Healthcare +1.01% Fin +0.63% Cons Staples +0.43% Utes -0.68% Energy -1.51% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors -5.0bp
to 334bp All Sectors ex-Energy -5.8bp to 309bp Cons Disc -5.0bp to 305bp Indu -6.8bp to 248bp Tech -6.0bp to 332bp Comm Srvcs -6.2bp to 522bp Materials -1.7bp to 298bp Energy -0.1bp to 338bp Fin Snr -5.7bp to 275bp Fin Sub -2.6bp to 218bp Cons Staples -9.2bp to 297bp Healthcare -8.6bp to 360bp Utes -6.5bp to 233bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/6 | 8:30AM | 4Q F Nonfarm Productivity | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 3/6 | 8:30AM | Jan Trade Balance | -128.8 | -98.431 |
| 3/6 | 8:30AM | 4Q F Unit Labor Costs | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| 3/7 | 8:30AM | Feb AHE m/m | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| 3/7 | 8:30AM | Feb Unemployment Rate | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| 3/7 | 8:30AM | Feb Non-farm Payrolls | 160.0 | 143.0 |
| 3/10 | 11AM | Feb NYFed 1yr Inf Exp | n/a | 3.0 |
| 3/11 | 6AM | Feb Small Biz Optimisum | 100.9 | 102.8 |
| 3/11 | 10AM | Jan JOLTS | n/a | 7600.0 |
| 3/12 | 8:30AM | Feb CPI m/m | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| 3/12 | 8:30AM | Feb Core CPI m/m | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 3/12 | 8:30AM | Feb CPI y/y | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| 3/12 | 8:30AM | Feb Core CPI y/y | 3.2 | 3.3 |
