SPX not in the clear just yet; Lots of work to do despite recent bounce Array ( [cookie] => 2eb997-b02d1e-552bd5-b56617-d58b40 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_macro [visitor_id] => 567899 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
Happy New year to All ! Tune into my 2025 Technical Analysis Outlook webinar on 1/7/25.
SPX is still technically within its bearish short-term consolidation pattern that began nearly five weeks ago, and the last couple of days of index gains have proven insufficient toward turning trends back to bullish. Treasury yields and US Dollar remain pointed higher in the short run and might stay elevated until the Inauguration, which might usher in a sharp pullback in both at a time when the investing public least expects it. While I remain constructive on the intermediate-term path for Equities, I’m unable to turn short-term bullish just yet based on a lack of progress and ongoing structural deterioration coupled with weaker breadth data. Any weakness in the coming weeks should help SPX become more appealing from a risk/reward standpoint. At current levels, the two-day bounce to kick off the new year looks to have stalled right where it needed to
As shown below, despite the sharp two-day rally in US Equities, prices haven’t yet surpassed resistance which looks strong for both SPX as well as QQQ. Breadth finished flat on Monday while more volume occurred in declining issues than advancing for NYSE. Prices failed to close higher than the opening price of the session while both Equal-weighted SPX along with DJIA finished negative on the day.
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