The Senate is considering the Biden $1.9T Covid Relief package. The legislation is being considered under Budget Reconciliation which allows for unlimited amendments which could drag the debate on into the weekend. However, there appears near certainty that all 50 Democrats will vote for the final bill, and VP Harris will break a 50/50 tie if needed to approve the bill.

To broaden the support of moderate Democrats the final Senate product is likely to reduce the House supplemental unemployment payments from $400 a week to $300. However, the Senate bill will extend the federal unemployment benefit a month from the end of August until the end of September. This could prove to be an important change as the federal unemployment expiration will now run parallel to the end of the US Government fiscal year and would allow any further extension to be tied to the “must pass” government funding legislation that needs to pass by October 1. In a further compromise to more liberal Senators the Senate bill will make the first $10,200 of unemployment tax free for 2020.

Another interesting vote was the amendment by Senator Sanders to overrule the Senate Parliamentarian and put the $15.00 minimum wage back in the bill. The House passed version of the package included the increased minimum wage proposal but the Senate Parliamentarian ruled it violated the Byrd Rule governing Budget Reconciliation. The Sanders effort lost on a vote of 58 to 42, with 8 more moderate Democratic Senator voting NO. While the $15.00 minimum wage won’t be part of the stimulus package it is far from dead, and I expect it to return and likely to pass later in the year but at a level below $15.00 an hour.

The Senate process will be tedious and lengthy lasting through the weekend; however at some point either late on Sunday or early next week the Senate will approve the Biden package. The next step will be for the House to consider the bill as amended by the Senate. There are two bitter pills for House progressives to swallow. One is the loss of the minimum wage increase, and the other is the lower unemployment weekly payment. However, insuring that the federal $300 a week payment doesn’t expire on March 14, and getting the $1,400 stimulus checks into people’s pockets should be enough of an incentive to get the bill passed.

Congress has a week to negotiate if Speaker Pelosi can’t get the votes to pass the Senate version of the bill. With the help of the President and Leader Schumer they could use the legislative tool known as “ping pong” where the House would make changes to the Senate bill and send it back to the Senate for final action. At this point any changes have not been announced it is part of the process that will need to be followed in the coming days.

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