Despite a promising start to the week with the first day below 50,000 new cases, progress seemed to reverse. We discuss four potential reasons that could explain the upward tick. Firstly, it could be a result of some schools being on spring break and the associated increase in travel. The second and most concerning explanation is that more transmissible variants are gaining ground. Thirdly, it could have to do with the inclement weather potentially affecting immune systems. Finally, disruptions last week also associated with the weather may have created a backlog in testing that is only now being realized.

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Whatever the reason behind the current uptick, we think it’s too soon to render judgement right now. However, it seems our prediction of sub-25,000 cases in March may be delayed. Despite, this new development we are very positive on the progress of vaccinations. By our calculations, 7 states have now reached the level where combined vaccinations and infections are reaching the critical level of 60% where ‘herd immunity’ may begin kicking in.

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The volatility in the stock market this week was nothing compared to what happened in the bond market as yie...

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