Markets Seem Poised For ‘Risk-On’ as Data Improves

As we finish the second week in February, the developments in COVID-19 have been largely positive. Notably, yesterday the White House signed the purchase agreement to secure an additional 200 million doses of COVID-19, bringing the total to 600 million by July (enough for 200 million Americans). 1.5 million vaccines were given this week vs. 1.2 million last week. There has been nearly a 20% drop in the positivity rate compared to seven days ago. Yet there seems to be a persistently negative public perception compared to many of these positive developments.

We have been monitoring organic case trends which have been very positive, despite the surge in more virulent mutations. Even in the nations where these strains originated, cases seem to be significantly collapsing. So, we are definitely experiencing a sustained organic trend in the right direction. At this rate, we could very well see less than 50,000 new cases a day by the end of February and half that by the middle of March. We’ve now seen 31 consecutive days of case decline.

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