As leaders search for a large coronavirus relief package, things could not be more chaotic in Washington heading into the weekend. Last weekend, the President encouraged the efforts to negotiate a relief backing tweeting “Go Big”. But then early in the week he announced that he had directed his Treasury Secretary to STOP negotiations with the Democrats in Congress. By Wednesday he was supporting some piecemeal ideas such as aid for the airlines and a $1,200 stimulus check, and on Friday the White House leaked that the Administration was preparing a $1.8T offer to give to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. At the same time Senate Republican Leader McConnell was skeptical that a relief package could be approved by Congress prior to the election, and Speaker Pelosi seems firm in her demand that any package be at least $2T.

There are many parts that are not only moving but moving in different directions every day. With the strong encouragement from Fed Chairman Powell, there is widespread agreement that another large coronavirus package is needed; but the President’s erratic positions makes it a difficult situation to read.

In my view, a White House signing ceremony for a big relief bill is exactly what the President wants, and he is so in need of a big deal that he will give up a lot, but how much would be too much for Senate Republicans? Is there a point that they would actually oppose President Trump? I find that doubtful. There is widespread agreement with Chairman Powell that another round of relief is needed; but while a bill is possible, the pathway is not clear. And many ask whether or not Speaker Pelosi would give the President a big victory weeks before the election.

Just as the President has had changing positions on the relief package, he has also been hard to pin down on the next debate. With the President’s infection, and the White House a hot zone for the virus, the independent Debate Commission announced that the second debate, scheduled for next week, would be aired as a virtual town hall. The President quickly rejected the idea and backed out. Then, as the President declared himself cured, his campaign proposed an in-person debate as originally scheduled next week. This is unlikely to happen and both candidates are likely to stage their own events on October 15, the proposed debate night. Time will tell if a final debate can be arranged with the changing positions of both candidates.

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