It appears that ebb and flow of the U.S.-China trade talks continues to be the issue which markets focus on, while investors largely ignore the back and forth on the potential impeachment of President Donald Trump by the House of Representatives.
Impeachment seems to be a side show for markets, at least.

Early in the week, President Trump mused that there may be no trade deal with China until after the 2020 election, and the market duly fell sharply. But the next day those directly involved changed the message to be more optimistic.

I think it’s important for investors to remember that the President is a master showman and loves to drive daily headlines, something we know by now that he can always do on the issue of China trade. It is an obvious a positive sign that China remained at the table after the President recently signed the Congressional legislation aimed at supporting protesters in Hong Kong.

However, similar legislation is moving through Congress to support ethnic Uighur Muslims in western China. Like the previous bill on Hong Kong, the new legislation has sanctions against Chinese officials but the use of sanctions is left to the President, and the Administration well understands the link between sanctions and trade. Moreover, the December 15 deadline looms as an important date with the scheduled new U.S. tariffs on Chinese consumer goods coming into effect so next week could be crucial on Phase One talks.

Speaking of deadlines, another important one is the December 20 end of the current Continuing Resolution (CR) funding the federal government. Congressional sources are talking of a weekend push to try to resolve most of the outstanding issues, but funding of the President’s border wall remains a potential deal breaker.

A big question is whether the headline loving President would find a Christmas government shutdown acceptable when weighted against the positive politics of fighting for funding the border wall. No one knows, perhaps not even President Trump.
This coming week could tell the tale.

Figure: Top Trump Tweets

U.S.-China Tariff, Budget Resolution Deadlines Loom
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